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Here we go again.
Analysts now expect earnings to decline in the first quarter of 2008.
Today, Thomson Financial's earnings growth consensus for the S&P 500 fell to -0.1 percent.
On Jan. 1, analysts expected growth of 5.7 percent On Oct. 1, it was 10.6 percent.
The main drag on earnings continues to be the financial sector.
Forecasts are for a 23 percent decline in financials' profits. On Jan. 1 consensus was an 11 percent decline and on Oct. 1 analysts called for a 5 percent increase.
Excluding financials, the growth forecast jumps to +9.0 percent.
However, other sectors are softening as well. Consumer discretionaries are also expected to decline 4 percent, a big drop from +8 percent consensus on Jan. 1 and a +18 percent forecast on Oct. 1.
Profits in the materials sector is also expected to fall by 3% versus a forecast of 7 percent increase on Jan.1 and 9 percent increase on Oct. 1.
Here's the sector-by-sector breakdown:
Q1 Earnings Growth by Sector |
| Current | 1-Jan | 1-Oct | |
| SECTOR | Mar08Q | Mar08Q | Mar08Q |
| Consumer Discretionary | -4% | 8% | 18% |
| Consumer Staples | 9% | 10% | 11% |
| Energy | 24% | 26% | 18% |
| Financials | -23% | -11% | 5% |
| Healthcare | 5% | 6% | 7% |
| Industrials | 6% | 8% | 9% |
| Materials | -3% | 7% | 9% |
| InformationTech | 10% | 14% | 14% |
| Telecomm Serv | 11% | 14% | 16% |
| Utilities | 7% | 8% | 10% |
| Total for S&P500 | -0.1% | 5.7% | 10.6% |
Source: Thomson Financial
The market has hit the Financial Sector the most in the past three months. Leading the Financials to the downside in the past 3 months are:
- MBIA [MBI
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()
] down 67% - Ambac Financial [ABK
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] down 64%
- Sallie Mae [SLM
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] down 45%
- MGIC Investment Corp [MTG
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] down 44%
- Countrywide Financial [CFC
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] down 35%
- These four sectors will be the next to lead the market.
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes