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Current DateTime: 11:52:04 27 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 30111251
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Feb.15
12:08 PM ET
Friday, 15 Feb 2008
Q1 Earnings Forecast Goes Negative

Here we go again.

Analysts now expect earnings to decline in the first quarter of 2008.

Today, Thomson Financial's earnings growth consensus for the S&P 500 fell to -0.1 percent.

On Jan. 1, analysts expected growth of 5.7 percent On Oct. 1, it was 10.6 percent.

The main drag on earnings continues to be the financial sector.

Forecasts are for a 23 percent decline in financials' profits. On Jan. 1 consensus was an 11 percent decline and on Oct. 1 analysts called for a 5 percent increase.

Excluding financials, the growth forecast jumps to +9.0 percent.

However, other sectors are softening as well. Consumer discretionaries are also expected to decline 4 percent, a big drop from +8 percent consensus on Jan. 1 and a +18 percent forecast on Oct. 1.

Profits in the materials sector is also expected to fall by 3% versus a forecast of 7 percent increase on Jan.1 and 9 percent increase on Oct. 1.

Here's the sector-by-sector breakdown:

  Q1 Earnings Growth by Sector
Current1-Jan1-Oct
SECTORMar08QMar08QMar08Q
Consumer Discretionary-4%8%18%
Consumer Staples9%10%11%
Energy24%26%18%
Financials-23%-11%5%
Healthcare5%6%7%
Industrials6%8%9%
Materials-3%7%9%
InformationTech10%14%14%
Telecomm Serv11%14%16%
Utilities7%8%10%
Total for S&P500-0.1%5.7%10.6%

Source: Thomson Financial

The market has hit the Financial Sector the most in the past three months.  Leading the Financials to the downside in the past 3 months are:

  • MBIA [MBI  Loading...      ()   ] down 67%
  • Ambac Financial [ABK  Loading...      ()   ] down 64%
  • Sallie Mae [SLM  Loading...      ()   ] down 45%
  • MGIC Investment Corp [MTG  Loading...      ()   ] down 44%
  • Countrywide Financial [CFC  Loading...      ()   ] down 35%
© 2009 CNBC.com

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