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Road Rules
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Investing can be confusing. Luckily, Cramer has mapped out some road rules for all you Home Gamers trying to navigate the jungle that is Wall Street. Think of it as "Mad Money 101" –- some fundamental advice to keep in mind as you play the market. Whether you're a first time investor or a seasoned financier, it's always good to remember the basics.
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Feb.21
8:03 PM ET
Thursday, 21 Feb 2008
Avoiding a Downturn

One of the best ways to sidestep a market nosedive is Cramer’s new rule for multiple contraction.

If you’re new to the game, a stock’s multiple is just the price of the stock divided by the earnings. It shows you what the market’s willing to pay for a certain level of earnings per share. Multiple contraction means the market will start paying a lot less for the same amount of earnings.



Only certain types of stocks are truly vulnerable to a multiple contraction – those with a high-multiple. Any stock that trades at more than 30 times forward earnings estimates could catch multiple contraction, Cramer said. Anything with a PE over 40 is almost begging for it. When the market takes a dip, Cramer advises you identify the high-multiple stocks in your portfolio.

Here’s an example of how things usually play out: You’ll see evidence of a slowdown or the Fed will hike rates a bit too far like it did in May 2006, and a lot of stocks that had been working will stop working. They’ll start going down. But you won’t see a severe multiple correction until your stock reports earnings, which is what happened to Whole Foods [WFMI  Loading...      ()   ] at the end of July that year when its same-store sales growth came in 0.1% below estimates. By then, the market had been ugly for months, and investors already were pessimistic about most high-multiple stocks. That report looped in Whole Foods with the rest. The stock dropped 10% overnight.

Bottom Line: If you want to avoid taking serious losses, then beware of multiple contraction. If you see a slowdown, you see a rate-hike that the market doesn’t like, then you should probably sell your high-multiple stocks before they report unless you want a world of pain.

Questions for Cramer?

Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website?


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