Leap Day and the Markets
Director of Market Data & Content Services, CBNC
Since the start of the Dow in 1896, there have only been 19 Leap Years with February 29 falling on a weekday including today. The last occurrence was eight years ago in 2000. Leap Day has been a down day more than up; only the Nasdaq has had more up Leap Days than down. Today's futures are pointing to an open that would follow this pattern.
February 29 and the Markets
- 18 past occurrences
- 61% of the time down, 39% up
- Avg gain of .13%
- Best Feb 29 was in 1988 - the Dow soared 2.4%
- Since the last Leap Year in 2000, the Dow is up almost 16%
- 14 past occurrences
- 57% of the time down, 43% up
- Avg gain of .2%
- Best Feb 29 was in 1988 - the S&P soared 2.0%
- Since the last Leap Year in 2000, the S&P is down almost 4%
- 6 past occurrences
- 17% of the time down, 83% up
- Avg gain of .67%
- Best Feb 29 was in 2000 - the NASDAQ soared 2.6%
- Since the last Leap Year in 2000, the NASDAQ is down almost 50%, still suffering the most from the dotcom bubble.
Month to date the three major indices are down. The Dow is down the least, only down .5%.