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Mar.04

2:56 PM ET

Tuesday, 4 Mar 2008

Intrade Political Futures Prediction Markets on the Democrats in Texas and Ohio

Posted By:Gina Francolla

Topics:Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | Elections | Presidential Politics (2008) | Politics & Government

The "new" Super Tuesday is here with 370 national convention delegates at stake. After today's primaries, slightly more than 600 delegates remain with Wyoming and Mississippi, and Pennsylvania, the biggest state left, with 158 delegates up for grabs in its primary on April 22nd. According to AP Press tally, Obama has 1,386 delegates to Clinton's 1,276, and 2,025 are needed to secure the Democratic nomination.
Polls are showing that tight races are still seen in both Texas and Ohio, and some are showing that Clinton may have at least halted Obama's momentum, and that in Ohio her lead is stronger.

The Intrade prediction markets are showing that Hillary Clinton will likely win Ohio, but not the Democratic nomination. Obama is also favored in Texas, though by a slimmer margin, according to the Intrade markets.
The Obama contract for the Democratic nomination [OBAMA08 Loading... () ] has been fairly steady since February 20th, and Super Tuesday, and is currently predicting an almost 82.70% probability that Obama will get the nomination vs. a 22.30% probability for Clinton [CLINTON08 Loading... ()] , which has also been fairly constant.

Ohio Primary: As of February 20th, the race for the Ohio Primary was tight, with Clinton (CLINTON.OH) showing a 55% probability of winning Ohio according to Intrade, and Obama with a 50% (OBAMA.OH) probability of winning Ohio.
-However, Clinton has become the frontrunner in Ohio, according to the Intrade prediction markets, showing an almost 85% probability of winning Ohio vs. Obama's 17% probability of winning Ohio.
*The Rasmussen Markets www.rasmussenreports.com are currently showing Clinton with an 84.2% probability of winning Ohio vs a 21.70% virtually identical to the Intrade markets.

Texas Primary on March 4th: Though support for Clinton (CLINTON.TX) had been falling and was at a 30% probability of winning in Texas as of February 20th, versus a 68% probability that Obama would win in Texas, according to Intrade, Clinton has gained some positive momentum.
-Today the Intrade markets have shown that Clinton has recovered ground, and is at a 50% probability that she will win Texas vs. a 53.50% probability that Obama will win.

According to the WSJ article on 2/13,"Intrade says it correctly call the 2004 presidential election in 49 states -- it got only Alaska wrong. And Iowa Electronic Markets says that it has been more accurate than 75% of almost a thousand political opinion polls over the past 16 years." Both Iowa and Intrade have been forecasting Obama will get the Democratic nomination since the results of Super Tuesday.