FedEx (FDX)

The company that redfined package shipping and brought over-night delivery to the masses.

Reports Q3 earnings Thursday 3/20 at approx. 745a ET. Conference call at 830a ET.

WHAT WILL MOVE THE STOCK:

FUEL COSTS - How much have fuel costs gone up and has FedEx

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[FDX  Loading...      ()   ] had any trouble passing those costs on to its customers? Delta Air Lines

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[DAL  Loading...      ()   ] added another $10 fuel surcharge to its ticket prices Wednesday, following last week's round of fuel surcharge hikes of up to $50 for U.S. flights.

GUIDANCE - Last Wednesday, Morgan Stanley lowered estimates for FedEx and UPS

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[UPS  Loading...      ()   ] after UPS CEO Scott Davis said package volume declined in February and if the trend continued in March, first quarter guidance will be "difficult to achieve." Morgan expects FedEx will lower guidance by 3%-5%.

SIGNS OF SLOWDOWN - Is FedEx having the same problems as UPS? Anlaysts still expect FedEx's revenues rose 6% in the latest quarter, so where's the growth?

CAPITAL SPENDING - When FedEx announced Q2 results on Dec. 20, it cut its capital spending forecast to $3.1 billion from $3.5 billion and said further reductions were possible. Will FedEx trim cap spending again?

ESTIMATES:

Q3 Estimates: EPS down 10% to $1.22, revenues up 6% to $9.113 billion

Q4 Estimates: EPS up 2% to $1.95, revenues up 3% to $9.447 billion

FY 08 Estimates: EPS down 5% to $6.31, revenues up 6% to $37.477 billion

Source: Thomson Financial

Year-ago actuals: Q3 EPS $1.35, Rev. $8.592 billion

*All estimates are current as of 3/19 and subject to change.*

FACTOIDS:

BETTER THAN THE S&P 500, BUT... - Fuel costs notwithstanding, FedEx stock is doing better than the broader indexes. Since FedEx's last earnings report on December 20th, FDX shares have fallen 7.9% while the S&P 500 is down 11.1% and the Dow Industrials are down 8.7%. However, competitor UPS is down just 1.3%.

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