February durable goods, due to report Wednesday, are expected to bounce back after January’s big drop. But how do you trade the companies that manufacture “big stuff” if the number is weak?
From a consumer standpoint, people don’t buy durable goods – think cars and appliances – when confidence is this low. Many durable goods maker, especially the automakers, are simply unsafe value traps, as far as Jeff Macke is concerned.
But how about a stock like Boeing , which has been absolutely pummeled since its announcements that the Dreamliner would continue to be delayed? Boeing benefits from a long order cycle that could outlast economic instability. As a consumer, Macke wouldn’t buy BA. But he made a note that it is cheap.
Durable goods reports are typically pretty important to the market, according to Tim Seymour. In this case, the bad news is already priced in in many cases. Automakers and appliance makers are so beaten down that some compelling risk-reward exists. On a decent number, Seymour thinks some of the “big stuff” companies with good international exposure could move higher.
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Trader disclosure: On Mar.25, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (YHOO), (INTC); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (CSCO), (ETFC), (MS), (MSFT), (NOK), (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO); Najarian Owns (COP) Calls, (BSC) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman's Firm Owns (MO), (MO-W),(MSFT), (PM-WI), (TSO), (VLO), (YHOO), (SUN), (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY), (COF); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BX), (CSCO), (DELL), (F), (INTC), (MER), (TMA), (TSO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (IBN), (CX) (TTM); Charles Schwab Is A Sponsor Of "Fast Money"; NBC Universal Is The Parent Company Of CNBC