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Earnings Season Forecast

With Alcoa's report yesterday afternoon, the official start to earnings season is here. Alcoa reported EPS of $.44 / share, missing analyst estimates by $.04. So far about 30 companies or just over 5% of the S&P 500 have reported. ~75% have beaten analyst estimates, ~10% have hit estimates, and ~15% have missed.

Here are the latest forecasts from Thomson Financial for the S&P 500:

  • Q1:
    • Currently expected to be -13.0%
    • With Financials removed, forecasts are for +7.0% (Financials are forecast to fall 62%)
    • The -13.0% can be compared to -9.9% a week ago, and -1.6% a month ago
  • Q2:
    • Currently expected to be -3%
    • With Financials removed, forecasts are for +8.3%

Here are some of the biggest EPS surprises in the past few weeks (not all S&P 500 companies):

  • Lennar beat EPS estimates by $0.89 / share on March 27
  • Embraer beat EPS estimates by $0.33 / share on March 20
  • Conagra beat EPS estimates by $0.22/ share on March 27
  • Mosaic beat EPS estimates by $0.22/ share on April 4
  • KB Homes missed EPS estimates by $2.30 / share on March 28
Symbol
Price
 
Change
%Change
AA
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CAG
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EMBR
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KBH
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LEN
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MOS
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