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Apr.08
10:05 AM ET
Tuesday, 8 Apr 2008
Earnings Season Forecast
Posted By:Ariel Nelson

With Alcoa's [AA  Loading...      ()   ] report yesterday afternoon, the official start to earnings season is here.  Alcoa reported EPS of $.44 / share, missing analyst estimates by $.04.  So far about 30 companies or just over 5% of the S&P 500 have reported.  ~75% have beaten analyst estimates,   ~10% have hit estimates, and ~15% have missed.

Here are the latest forecasts from Thomson Financial for the S&P 500:

  • Q1:
    • Currently expected to be -13.0%
    • With Financials removed, forecasts are for +7.0% (Financials are forecast to fall 62%)
    • The -13.0% can be compared to -9.9% a week ago, and -1.6% a month ago
  • Q2:
    • Currently expected to be -3%
    • With Financials removed, forecasts are for +8.3%

Here are some of the biggest EPS surprises in the past few weeks (not all S&P 500 companies):

  • Lennar [LEN  Loading...      ()   ] beat EPS estimates by $0.89 / share on March 27
  • Embraer [ERJ  Loading...      ()   ] beat EPS estimates by $0.33 / share on March 20
  • Conagra [CAG  Loading...      ()   ] beat EPS estimates by $0.22/ share on March 27
  • Mosaic [MOS  Loading...      ()   ] beat EPS estimates by $0.22/ share on April 4
  • KB Homes [KBH  Loading...      ()   ] missed EPS estimates by $2.30 / share on March 28
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