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Stocks mostly weaker today. Two factors:
1) concern the Fed's period of rate cuts is coming to an end (on this, commodities and commodity stocks are down, dollar is rallying), and
2) the dismal new-home sales number, at a 16-year low. No sign of a bottom here: unsold inventories remain at multi-decade highs. Prices dropped 13.3 percent from the same month last year, but evidently will have to drop more.
Not surprisingly, home builders had little good to say. Ryland Group [RYL
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] and Pulte Homes [PHM
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] reported. Ryland, for example, did reduce the number of spec homes they have, but revenues and margins came in lower than expected.
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Similar story with Pulte: they reduced the spec homes, but the company has a lot of land exposure, and a lot of general exposure to Florida. They reported a huge charge (over $600 million) because the value of land they hold had dropped. Orders continue to be weak, and there are still clear signs of price deflation.
The Shanghai composite, after hitting a 52-week low this week, rose 9 percent today. Shanghai rallied after the Chinese government cut the stamp tax. Don't kid yourself though -- there's already some signs that exports are slowing: Hong Kong exports rose 7.6 percent, vs. expectations of 11.7 percent.
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