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Is this the beginning of a rotation in the stock market? There's debate about this, but there are signs that some smart money is positioning themselves for a rotation out of commodities -- and into tech.
Trade with CNBC's Experts: |
This has been spurred by concern that the Fed will begin sounding more hawkish on inflation tomorrow. This (along with some signs that inflation is moderating in Europe) is giving a modest boost to the dollar in the last week.
The result: Money has been quietly coming out of commodity stocks like gold and metals -- but even out of agricultural stocks, despite stellar earnings.
At the same time, classic tech momentum stocks like Google [GOOG
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], Baidu.com [BIDU
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], Research in Motion [RIMM
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], and Apple [AAPL
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] have broken out to multi-month highs.
Are the fundamentals for commodities falling apart? No. Demand for gold remains strong. Ol is at 116.. potash is contracting at $1000 a metric ton. Steel prices remain firm. Iron ore prices are rising. But the commodity/commodity stock trade is very long in the tooth (materials stocks are up over 100 percent in the past five years), and it is, as traders say, a very crowded long.
Questions? Comments?
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