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Jobless Claims Get Better, but Remain at High Level

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  Friday, 19 Apr 2013 | 10:57 AM ET

How to Jump-Start the US Economy: Op-Ed

Posted By: Peter Morici, Professor at the University of Maryland
Steven Puetzer | The Image Bank | Getty Images

Anti-growth policies continue to frustrate the aspirations of working Americans. The economy is likely growing at less than 2 percent in the second quarter, making prospects for a better job market remote.

Higher payroll taxes and income taxes paid by the wealthy took away $165 billion in purchasing power. Consumers reacted, but with a lag, because they need to keep driving to work and feeding their children. Now car dealers and shopping malls report slowing sales.

Overall, the fiscal drag of those higher taxes and another $44 billion in federal outlays mandated by sequestration are subtracting a tidy sum from aggregate demand. But the focus on short-term budget policies fails to reckon with a tougher issue—before these, even with record government spending and rock-bottom interest rates the economy has averaged only 2.1 percent growth since mid-2009. By contrast, the Reagan recession was just as deep and wrenching as the Obama recession, but the Gipper accomplished 5.3 percent growth over the comparable period.

(Read More: Kudlow: Falling Gold Is a Good Thing)


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  Thursday, 18 Apr 2013 | 4:46 PM ET

Yoshikami: What's Wrong with China Equities?

Posted By:
AFP | Getty Images

China reported gross domestic product growth below many analysts expectations and the markets shuttered.

What's happening with this once-strong growth engine for the global economy? With headlines blaring that wage increases will make China less of a cheap manufacturing destination, has China lost its competitive advantage? Will soaring Chinese real estate continue to hamper the efforts of China's central bank to stimulate the economy?

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  Thursday, 18 Apr 2013 | 2:09 PM ET

Time to Rethink Renewable Fuel Rules

Posted By: Lucian Pugliaresi, President of the Energy Policy Research Foundation
Getty Images

Abundance.What was an unthinkable term to describe the North American energy landscape just six years ago now defines it, thanks to the resurgence of large-scale, and sustained, increases in energy production across the United States. Such production growth has driven down crude imports to their lowest levels since 1997, thus lessening the nation's dependence on foreign oil from places like Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. North America now produces two million more barrels per day of crude oil than it did just three years ago.

These new crude supplies — combined with domestic access to plentiful, low-cost natural gas — provide a unique opportunity for U.S. refiners and petrochemical manufacturers to both supply domestic markets and compete in global energy markets. Not only are we well-positioned to produce more energy at home,but also to generate greater economic growth across a wide range of industries,while providing much needed relief to consumers at the pump.

(Read More: Texas Disaster May Help Fertilizer Companies: Citi)

But if we are to fully realize these benefits, we must revisit a long list of regulatory roadblocks installed in an era of rising imports and worries of long-term dependence on foreign oil. One program in need of urgent reform is the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) — a set of federal mandates implemented in 2007 that require the blending of ever-larger volumes of biofuels into the gasoline pool. This ill-advised program is putting consumer vehicles at risk,and now threatening to drive up the price of gasoline.

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  Tuesday, 16 Apr 2013 | 10:14 PM ET

What the G20 Need to Talk About This Week

Posted By: Anton G. Siluanov, Finance Minister, Russian Federation
Sasha Mordovets | People | Getty Images
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov

Critical discussions will take place in Washington this week, notably the annual spring IMF and World Bank meeting and the meeting of G-20 finance ministers, which I will lead.

Since 2008, our meetings have been weighed down by deep concern over the magnitude of the global financial crisis, increasing public debt levels, slow growth and rising social tensions. This week's meetings provide key opportunities to reflect on how to prevent such profound financial difficulties in the future.

We must assess the measures taken to stabilize financial markets and stimulate economic growth. We need more interactive discussions and closer coordination of national economic policies. While glints of optimism may be visible on the horizon, uncertainty is likely to remain the prevailing forecast for some time to come.

The strengthening U.S. economy is an encouraging sign. The sustained recovery of the housing market, along with the surprising resilience of household spending and corporate profitability contribute to steadying growth. This should ripple positively through the global economy.

Still, there is little progress on a long-term strategy for putting America's fiscal house in order and stabilizing the country's debt burden. Investor confidence has improved, but corporate investment remains subdued. This holds back a more robust recovery.

Similarly, in the euro zone, although relative calm and some stability have returned to financial markets, the weakness of the real economy persists. Uncertainty and inconsistency in the policy approach to the ongoing debt crisis has damaged confidence.

When European leaders reached important agreements on reforms in the financial and public sectors last summer, a real turnaround seemed close, notably with the planned banking union. However, the delays in the implementation of the measures have bred exhaustion, both from countries whose citizens are subject to austerity policies as well as from those providing financial support. Instead of turnaround, we see a turning back.

The fragile underpinnings of the global economy were most recently exposed in Cyprus. When the foundations of this small island that makes up only 0.5 percent of euro zone GDP (gross domestic product) shook, much of the world paid attention.

(Read More: EU to Explore 'Frontloading' Payments to Cyprus)

How the European authorities handled the crisis cannot inspire great confidence. The poor process to restructure Cypriot banks, the notion of a deposit tax and imposing capital controls set a bad precedent and dealt a heavy blow to local businesses and population.

Indeed, a more consistent approach by European authorities could have prevented some of the deposit flight from Cyprus prior to the crisis that inflated the cost for depositors who had put their trust in the European legal system.

All of this happened after European regulators silently witnessed the Greek debt problem migrate to Cyprus followed by a substantial "haircut". This could have been avoided with the introduction of proper coordinating mechanisms.

(Read More: Cyprus Central Bank Failed in Its Job, President Tells ECB)

We hope the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) can finally now reach a point of enabling the long-awaited recapitalization of banks in countries with high public debt. We also hope that this experience will refocus European policy makers on the pressing need to enact a banking union, progress on which has stalled since last fall.

The lack of coordination compounds the risks within an interconnected global economy.

(Read More: Germany's Steinbrueck: Another Cyprus Can't Be Ruled Out)

Unconventional monetary policy in developed countries contributes to low interest rates and a gradual recovery of the economy. But it also risks higher inflation and, by pushing investors to search for yield in riskier assets and markets, capital flows can become excessive and spur asset bubbles.

The discussions over the right choice of fiscal and tax policies and measures to stimulate growth must continue. Substantial budgetary risks and delayed fiscal consolidation raise doubts on easing debt burdens. The G-20 needs to address how to ensure economic growth while implementing fiscal consolidation.

From 2015, the IMF expects annual global growth of 4.5 percent, driven in particular by the locomotive of emerging markets and developing countries. In 2007 these economies accounted for 44 percent of global GDP. By 2017, this figure may reach 54 percent. Maintaining this trend will benefit everybody.

(Read More: Not Concerned About Hard Landing in China: IMF)

This year's spring meetings are a key step toward the full recovery we all want. Learning the right lessons from history and letting them drive reforms is the path to stability and growth. We have an opportunity to enhance the lives of the billions of people we represent.

Open, honest dialogue followed by decisive action must characterize our meetings this week. That is how to make the global economy we all share truly work for all of us.

Anton G. Siluanov is the finance minister of the Russian Federation, which holds the G-20 Presidency

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  Friday, 12 Apr 2013 | 2:06 PM ET

Cyprus Rescue: From Bad to Worse: El-Erian

Posted By: Mohamed A. El-Erian | CEO & CO-CIO, PIMCO
Joshua Roberts | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Mohamed El-Erian, CEO PIMCO

The press conference at today's Eurogroup meeting in Dublin showed the sad incoherence of the Cyprus rescue. Also, by confirming the concerns outlined in this note a week ago, it served to further weaken the credibility of the mechanism that is at the center of Europe's crisis management.

In approving a 10 billion euro package, Europeans called on Cyprus to find an additional 6 billion euros to cover what is now a larger funding hole. In other words, it now needs to generate a total of 13 billion euros. This is a huge amount for a country the size of Cyprus, even after it goes after uninsured deposits in local bank accounts.

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  Wednesday, 10 Apr 2013 | 1:20 PM ET

Innovation May Spark Economic Renewal: Warrior

Posted By: Padmasree Warrior | Chief Technology & Strategy Officer, Cisco
Andy Ryan | Stone | Getty Images

The Economist magazine cover story recently explored whether innovation was dead. Is it possible that after five years of a tough economy with a slow recovery that we're done when it comes to new ideas?

These kinds of concerns are usually loudest right before the onset of remarkable innovation and renewal. Just think back to the early 1990s recession that supposedly marked the end of an era, only to be followed by one of our longest periods of economic growth.

So, what's next? History tells us that times of great innovation spark intense economic renewal and growth.

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  Tuesday, 9 Apr 2013 | 2:53 PM ET

Yoshikami: The Disaster at J.C. Penney

Posted By:
Getty Images
Ron Johnson

The replacement of CEO Ron Johnson at J.C. Penney caps what has truly been a disastrous turn of events for the 110-year-old retailer.

Johnson was brought in to revitalize the brand and he took bold action that was not readily accepted by J.C. Penney's current customer base. It's as if the focus was to make J.C. Penney like Apple (where he headed up the Apple stores division) and bring the same consumers to that retailer. Clearly with plummeting sales and losses mounting, the strategy was not effective.

So what went wrong?

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  Friday, 5 Apr 2013 | 11:03 AM ET

Leveen: Conscious Capitalism, Think Different About Business

Posted By: Steve Leveen, Co-founder and CEO of Levenger, WPO Miami/Fort Lauderdale and CNBC-YPO Chief Executive Network Member
Source: amazon.com

During the early years of Levenger, the company that my wife, Lori, and I founded in 1987, I would hear business executives speak at charity events about the importance of "giving back" to their communities. I chafed at this. It implied that business was taking and that we business people, like criminals, had a debt to repay.

Levenger creates high-quality products designed for reading, thinking, and creative expression.

Yet, I watched our own business employ people, help them grow in their careers, make our suppliers happy, keep our accountants busy, and give our customers something that—judging by the many heartfelt letters we received—they had been yearning for.

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  Sunday, 7 Apr 2013 | 9:51 PM ET

Largest Deficit Nation Still Delights Investors

Posted By:
Evelyn Peyton | E+ | Getty Images

The old axiom of financial theory that capital always flows from surplus (saving) to deficit (borrowing) units is a handy guide to anticipate directions of major capital movements in the world economy. These movements are crucially important for economic and financial forecasting because they drive the business cycle and asset prices.

So, who are the big borrowers and the big savers at the moment?

The United States remains by far the largest deficit country in the world. India is the distant second, followed by the U.K. and Brazil. Based on the latest data available, the total current account deficit of these four countries is about $690 billion. That is the amount of foreign savings these countries have to import to balance their books.

(Read More: Sequestration Is Not Favored Method to Cut US Deficit: NABE)

Among the big savers, China is running the largest external surplus, followed by the euro area, Southeast Asia, Russia and Japan – in that order of magnitude. This group of countries is presently showing a total current account surplus of $657 billion. These are excess savings that will be invested in deficit country assets.

(Read More: Weak Yen Puts Japan Current Account Back in Black)

What we have here is a good approximation of the world's balance of payments. The difference of $33 billion between surpluses and deficits is accounted for by the rest of the world (which is not included in this calculation) and by what national accounts statisticians call "statistical discrepancy."

The most important – and the most reassuring – evidence here is that the global balance of payments is roughly in balance, i.e., it is approximately zero. For those of you who might be theoretically inclined, this is also called Cournot's Law, in recognition of Augustin Cournot, the 19th century French mathematician, economist and philosopher who formulated this relationship.

Safe Haven U.S.A.

Here are some examples of how this concept can be used by investment analysts to anticipate the likely movements in exchange rates and asset prices.

Let's start with the U.S., a country which might need this year some $500 billion of foreign savings to finance its expected current account deficit. (Remember, the sum of current and capital accounts has to be equal to zero.) To attract this large amount of capital, the U.S. will have to compete in global financial markets on the basis of expected risk-adjusted returns on assets it will be offering to foreign investors.

The all-important factor here is the expected risk-adjusted return. This means that the (expected) real price of U.S. assets – which can be calculated on the basis of a set of "hard" numbers (financial variables) - also includes aspects such as creditworthiness, safety and liquidity of America's dollar-denominated investment instruments.

To see how important that is, just think of how much investors valued creditworthiness, safety and liquidity when they stepped up their demand for dollar assets as the euro area once again gravely damaged its credibility during the Cyprus crisis.

(Read More: Troika Risking Its Credibility on Cyprus: El-Erian)

Normally, the large U.S. current account deficit should have triggered rising U.S. interest rates – i.e., falling dollar asset prices. In fact, the opposite happened: prices in U.S. fixed-income markets rose and are showing remarkable resilience (in spite of a hugely expansionary monetary policy), while equity markets hit new record-highs. All that is reflected in the fact that over the past 12 months, the dollar's trade-weighted exchange rate was driven up by more than 6 percent.

But that is history. The question now is: Can the U.S. remain an appealing investment destination in the months ahead?

It most probably can, partly because its main competitor, the euro area, has become a large capital exporter with increasingly unattractive financial markets, where recessions and rising unemployment are serious obstacles to fiscal consolidation.

In addition to that, the euro area has (a) worsening problems of political instability (Italy without government, unfolding corruption scandals in recession-hit Spain and France), (b) dysfunctional banking systems (weak banks and their impaired lending activities despite ample liquidity supplied by the ECB) and (c) lingering uncertainties about the financial system's credibility (problems with depositor and investor protection).

(Read More: France Appeals for German Leniency on Deficit)

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  Tuesday, 2 Apr 2013 | 6:58 AM ET

Cyprus Crisis Isn't Over Yet: El-Erian

Posted By: Mohamed El-Erian, CEO & CO-CIO, Pimco
Getty Images

Draconian capital controls have restored a sense of calm to a disorderly situation in Cyprus. At best, this is a short reprieve. If not followed by more fundamental (and inevitably controversial) decisions, it will just be a matter of weeks before the controls go from being a temporary solution to becoming part of an even deeper problem.


»Read more

About The Guest Blog

CNBC is the destination for the world’s experts who really know what they are talking about, and who want to talk about it right here on CNBC.com. Here on The Guest Blog you’ll find commentary, analysis, insight and at times provocation from some of the world’s most influential thought leaders as they weigh in on money, markets and matters of state.