Every columnist, blogger, author of any type who actually uses his real name and gives an email address gets swarmed by the ankle biters: snide, frustrated, angry, supremely confident, always on the attack. Think local a.m. talk radio on open line Friday and subtract 10 IQ points, and you get the picture. You get to know some of the names from repetition.

Since I'm an upbeat sort of a guy, I've decided to make the best of the sad state of public affairs that is internet political discourse. When they throw rotten tomatoes, make V8, I always say. When they throw something else, make a compost heap.

My recent post regarding the choice of Sarah Palin as V.P. nominee really got them riled up. Screen out the invective and you're left with Sarah Palin is not qualified to be President because she's not qualified to be Vice President because she's less experienced than Biden.

Strange line of reasoning, haven't any of these people read the 12th Amendment? Need a refresher?

Well once upon a time presidential candidates ran against one another and the one who got the most votes got to be president and the one who got the second most votes got to be vice president. That's right, originally vice president meant 'silver medal' winner in the presidential race. This didn't last very long. The losers hated the winners even more than the framers had expected, so that after the race was over they found themselves unable (or unwilling) to work together in any constructive way.

In fact the election of 1800 was so ugly that some commentators began to wonder whether giving the vice president's office to the minority party might not constitute an undue incentive to assassination. Jefferson and Adams really did not get along with each other.

So, the constitution was amended so that the people vote for a presidential ticket made up of a presidential and a vice presidential candidate: only one party in the executive branch at a time.

This made the Vice President something different than it had been before. He (so far) wasn't a co-president, or a counterbalance, or a president regent — he was there to help the president get elected. Yes, there were other powers, the rarely-relevant tie-breaker role in the Senate, and the equally unusual successor role were still there. But it hasn't been about that for a long time; it's about politics.

That's why it's so odd to hear people asking whether Palin is the 'most qualified to be president'. Of course she isn't. Neither is Joe Biden. Do Palin's critics of the left really believe that John Edwards is qualified to be a 'heartbeat away'? How about Joe Lieberman? Henry Wallace? Well if you don't think they should have been president than you can't really have consistently voted for Kerry, Gore or FDR.

Vice President's are generally ticket balancers. Reagan chose George H.W. Bush, his rival, to get the centrists on board. Jack Kennedy did the same thing with LBJ and the southern conservatives. Kennedy couldn't stand Johnson, and would have been horrified at the prospect of him as president (his family and supporters certainly were when it happened). McKinley wanted someone like Teddy Roosevelt for his youth and energy. Teddy did the campaigning; Bill stayed at home and sat on his front porch.

Is Sarah Palin qualified to fulfill the primary traditional role of a vice presidential nominee? Of course she is, because the primary traditional role of a vice presidential nominee is to help elect the top of the ticket. By that standard, the surging favorability ratings, Internet contributions and party unity, she's already shown herself to be worth far more than her (rather meager) weight in gold.

Slideshow: The Many Sides of Sarah Palin

What are other CNBC.com guest commentators saying?

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Updated post ...

A few months ago Sean Tully of Fortune Magazine was on Kudlow and Company and offered the thought that crude oil would go to $50-$70 a barrel before too long as that level represents the marginal cost of production and commodity prices often revert to the marginal cost. (Click here to see video)

Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover was on CNBC a few moments ago and guessed oil would trade in a range of $68-$80 soon. Such directional estimates looked absurd recently as oil defied gravity and soared ever higher. Goldman Sachs recently forecast that oil would still see $149 this year. Anything can happen but the trend in oil, and most commodities, is clearly down in my view.

The recent strength in the dollar is probably caused as much by weakness in the Eurozone as anything else, but it is still strong. Since oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar can allow producers of oil to take a lower nominal price and not feel forced to cut production. OPEC meets again soon and with the threat of a resurgent Russia causing great concern in that section of the world, it probably is politically unfeasible for them to consider a production cut. Since they are overproducing the announced quota right now, chances are they will simply revert to quota and otherwise take a low profile. But the market knows this as well and the price of oil still can't move up.

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It's 11 AM on Labor Day and it looks like the worst fears surrounding Hurrricane Gustav will not be met. Keeping in mind that it was round 2 of Katrina that caused the disaster, it does appear that Gustav is no danger to the oil/gas/refinery complex in the Gulf Coast.

It’s a big day for John McCain. It’s a big day for Sarah Palin . And it’s a big day for CNBC and Larry Kudlow of CNBC’s Kudlow & Company. The vast majority of mainstream media hovered like flies around Tim Romnlenty (or is it Mitt Pawmney?). This is about the biggest case of received-wisdom-wrong-again in my memory. A small number of big-time media outlets were talking about Palin, and probably none of them was further out ahead on this one than Kudlow . Guys, take a victory lap. I may take one myself .

Now, what does it mean. It means that drill, drill, drill gets stronger. Sarah knows this stuff inside and out. She can back McCain in the defense of drilling, transporting and refining oil. She puts ANWR back on the map. Who knows it better than the governor of Alaska?

The delegates may have been unified last night, but the party isn’t. Women feel dissed, and why shouldn’t they? They went majority for Hillary. She lost largely because the party threw out the Michigan and Florida votes (until Obama was a foregone conclusion).

I think we are in a bear market but I think/hope we saw the lows of this downturn in July. Most low points get tested at some time or another and I worry the July low needs to undergo such a test. But a point Sir Larry Kudlow drew out of me last night on Kudlow and Co. is that I do feel better about things.

The further away and the higher we get from the lows of July make the likelihood of revisiting those levels less likely.The strength in financial stocks is also encouraging (but that could be a passing phase motivated by short covering.) I also saw some real positives in yesterday's GDP report. The 3.3% reported gain would have been a mere .3% advance were it not for the 3.1% contribution from export trade. Some want to dismiss this as a one time benefit as the dollar has strengthened recently. My view is the dollar was so undervalued that we will have an export wind from a currency prospective for some time to come. Weakening overseas economies will have a far greater impact on our trade balance than the currency and overseas clearly is weakening, but not disappearing. I expect less of a gain from exports, but a gain none the less. (See video)

After experiencing strong political winds from Denver allweek, the markets are now firmly focused on the“other” wind that forming in the Gulf ofMexico. Hurricane Gustav is spreading fear from NewOrleans to Wall Street as it gathers steam. The latestmodels have it trekking into the oil and gas producing regionsof the US gulf coast. From Texas to Mississippi, thisarea has 25% of US oil production and 15% of US natural gasproduction flow through it. Oil, natural gas, homeheating oil are just some of the commodities already gettingwind struck from just the possibility of the storm’sapproach.

Hurricanes have had an enormous impact on the financialmarkets from lumber to insurance providers to oilproducers. What’s disturbing is the increasingstrength and frequency of these storms. More than 30%ofthe worst hurricanes of the last 106 years have occurred injust the last 6 years. If we use the last 20 years, thetotal goes up to 40%. This is why some researchersbelieve that global warming is a contributing factor to thenumber and frequency of these storms. This angst isfueled by the storm period of 2004 and 2005 which produced sixhurricanes Category 3 or higher.

From a damage perspective, the top 6 out of 7 costliestmainland US hurricanes occurred in the last 3 hurricaneseasons. Their estimated damage: a whopping$151 billion with Katrina contributing over half the dollartotal in 2005. This was just the damage inflicted onbuildings and infrastructure. It doesn’t take intoaccount the damage inflicted on investor’sportfolios. The irony is that we know when these stormsgenerally occur: the season is from June 1st to November30th. What we don’t know is where they will hiteven after it makes landfall. Hurricane Katrina made itsfirst landfall in Florida before moving on to Louisiana. Hurricane Fay made landfall four times in Florida. Amazingly, investors can prepare and take advantage ofhurricanes.

Let’s look at 2004. Hurricanes Charley and Ivanhit within a month of each other and should be considered intandem as their impacts can’t be separated from eachother. Charley came up through Cuba which is about whereHurricane Gustav is trekking now. It then turned northand devastated the western coast of Florida. HurricaneIvan went over Cuba and then headed through the Gulf Shoresarea. So while Charley impacted tourism in Florida, Ivanimpacted energy production and distribution in theGulf.

Over the time frames of the storms forming and hitting,crude oil rallied 10%, the US dollar index sank from 82 to 78,and natural gas soared almost 50%. Much of this reactionhad to do with the surprise of the size of the storms and theshort time frame in between when Charley and Ivan hit. However, the construction sector was also impacted. TheBloomberg US Homebuilders Index is a cap-weighted index of theleading home builders in the United States. Prior to thestorms, this index was at the lows for the year in late2004. It started a rally in August and took off with thelandfall of Charley. It continued to rally strongly intoIvan. And then it backed off to pre-Charley levels.

Hey, that’s a thought: a hurricane couldactually be a good thing for the US construction sector! Wow, in dark times we need a hurricane to help? Friday ontheClosingBell , I’ll be taking a look at whathappened with Katrina and Rita in a segment called Man vsMarket. Tune in for further ideas on how to prepare andinvest when a hurricane hits.

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That's what my buddy Sam Schulman \(who publishes "The American Magazine"\) called it on his daily blog .

I printed the speech out, and marked the paragraphs about Hillary with an "H" and the paragraphs about Obama with an "O."

In the end, the formula for her endorsement was the same basic formula as water: H2O1.

She hurt him. All the good stories were about her. She acted like he was the bridesmaid and she was the bride, getting the endorsement out of the way in the first 30 seconds.

As my good friend Larry Kudlow suggests , Obama is getting a NEGATIVE convention bounce so far. The more we see, the less we like. Intrade futures down two days in a row. Obama's decision to diss her and hers will be a drag on him.
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CNBC Special Report:

- Stocks Pick the Next President

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Usually the loser raises money for the winner, but Barack's raising money for her! In the midst of a tough race, he's going to be paying off her campaign debt. He is paying rather than collecting tribute. He has to; he can't win without women. Race and gender factions have dominated the party for 40 years. It's all in Federalist No. 10 (the tenth of the Federalist Papers). James Madison is still state of the art in political forecasting.

The race card was dealt from the podium last night -- by Hillary.

She eulogized Stephanie Tubbs Jones, an odd choice in an endorsement speech until you remember that Jones was a prominent member of the Congressional Black Caucus. Lots of references to Harriett Tubman too. This is all aimed at black voters. All Hillary's way of saying, "This race-card thing isn't over. You've painted Bill and me as racially insensitive and we're not going to take that lying down."

Obama thought she would be handing over her base to him, but it turned out that she made yet another play for his. When the anti-market party shows no signs of healing, then investors might be the winners.

What are other CNBC.com guest commentators saying?

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Energy prices continue to exhibit significant volatility of late.

Last week, crude oil prices rose and fell six dollars on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Already, this week, crude oil prices have swung four dollars from low to high.

The dominant aspects of the market are a seeming battle between supply threats and the diminished economic outlook.

Over the next several days the track of hurricane Gustav will be closely scrutinized. The weather models that I rely upon are indicating a path that puts the storm into the heart of US oil and gas production region in the Gulf of Mexico and threatens this country’s refining assets situated along the Gulf Coast region. (See map, at top.)

• Insider: Gustav Biggest Threat to Gulf Oil Since Katrina

The very warm ocean temperatures will provide tremendous fuel for this storm. I have likened it to an egg hitting a frying pan. If you recall, this is exactly how the devastating storms of 2005 erupted; once Katrina and Rita entered the Gulf of Mexico, satellite imagery showed the storms encompassing almost the entire body of water from Texas to Florida.

I do not mean to sound alarmist, but Gustav is setting up in a similar fashion to those historic storms and represents the most credible storm threat since that time.

Prices will rise and fall on the storm tracking updates. Look for Gulf production to be affected as soon as Wednesday, as offshore rigs are evacuated, out of an abundance of caution. Shell is the first to announce such an evacuation. Also, with a holiday weekend before us, I would expect prices to rise, as traders will likely seek to avoid the risk of being short over the extended weekend.

A witches brew of geopolitical concerns is also helping to keep a floor under prices. While no single situation is a featured item, at the moment, the list of concerns is lengthy and possible of flaring up at any moment: Iran, Pakistan, Nigeria, Russia-Georgia, are all percolating in the background, feeding the anxieties that have served to prop up oil prices over the past year or more.

The major moderating factor on prices continues to be the global economic outlook. With Japan and Europe registering economic contraction and the possibility of the United States joining those ranks, slackened energy demand is a necessary consequence. It was the seeming demand insatiability that was component of the record price run, and that concern appears to have ebbed considerably.

When prices were rising, the silver lining was that they were rising for a good reason: a robust global economy. While consumers welcome the price break at the pump these days, the declines are coming on the back economic slow down, which is the bad news here.

Critical support for crude oil prices is now at $110.89 per barrel. If that level is broken, a considerable sell-off may ensue. However, despite the headwinds from demand concerns, prices appear to have made base or floor and are poised to go higher, particularly with the current set of concerns. It will truly be another stormy week for energy prices.

Farrell: Economic Worries are Trumping Russia Oil Fears

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I did a quick hit on Squawk Box this morning and the discussion centered on oil and, what is to me, a surprising lack of strength in the commodity when Russia's new-found belligerence is factored in.

Russia's move into South Ossetia and then into Georgian territory will force a reconsideration of alliances in the area. Former Soviet satellites will now have to ask themselves if their security is enhanced or threatened by affiliation with the West. The Western side of Central Asia, the Balkans, Poland, the Ukraine, have cast their votes with NATO. But the Caucusus, Kazakhstan (with huge oil reserves), and Uzbekistan (gas reserves) being to the East and far removed from the geographic embrace of Western Europe will need to consider where their best interests are.

I think that the prediction markets are treating the Biden choice as generally positive for Obama. Presidential future’s trader’s reacted positively right away, backed off a little, digesting the negatives (he said tough things about Obama during the primary; he has a serious case of hoof in mouth disease; he’s pretty liberal, etc.), and concluded that Biden would, on balance help Obama. He’s already ahead, so he falls on the ball during the last play. Not exactly bold change that we can believe in, but it will probably help him. Yes, Hillary would have been a slam dunk, but traders knew he wasn’t going to choose Hillary.

Biden was the best that Obama buyers could hope for given the fact that he would not countenance a real rival on the ticket. He may have announced in Springfield, Illinois, but Obama didn’t pull a Lincoln. There is no team of rivals.

Treasury yields have moved to their lowest since May, reflecting a number of influences, listed below. I recognize that prices spiked, but the catalyst is more the result of collective influences than anything else, although there were a few influences that coincided at the time of the spike:

1) In the futures market, there was a spate of so-called black box trading, as evidenced in part by a large amount of volume that took place at around the opening of pit trading, some of it possibly tied to the 10-year moving through 3.80%, its first break through that yield since May.

2) The sense out of Jackson Hole was that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was quite dovish, and it is possible that participants had their buying shoes on this morning following the weekend meeting.

3) The Chicago National Activity index was released earlier today and the results suggested that the U.S. economy is bordering on recession.

The index is strongly correlated with major economic statistics.

4) The Lehman Fixed-Income Indexes, which serve as benchmarks for portfolio managers, is set to increase sharply at month's end as a result of newly sold long-term Treasury issues. Managers will need to add "duration," by putting cash to work and or extending maturities or buying futures. It is a bit early for this influence, but some managers might feel comfortable adding duration now and speculation over its influence is an influence in and of itself.

5) A story supposedly appearing on the FT's online site is said to indicate that a Korean regulator is warning against any purchase of a U.S. investment bank.

6) Market News reports that Reuters is citing a G-20 official that is saying the IMF is reducing its growth forecasts for 2008 and 2009.

7) Equities are opening weaker.

8) There is no shortage of anxiety over Fannie and Freddie and its implications for the economy and the financial markets.

More: Click for Latest Economic coverage ...

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