The long commodities, short dollar trade is dead – at least for now. That’s according to strategic investor Dennis Gartman, who recently exclaimed on Fast Money that he thinks the commodities bubble of the last six months has burst.
Oil, he called “extremely expensive” in and of itself as well as relative to natural gas. For crude to trade back down to $100 wouldn’t be surprising, in his view. And while natural gas is a better trade, in his opinion, he’s not an aggressive buyer because “the bloom is off the rose in all commodities for the moment.”
Just look at gold, which can’t make a new high no matter how hard it tries. Wheat has slowed to a halt and there’s a panic in rice, Gartman said. There’s so much turning over that the smart money would be to leave this trade alone for a while. Gartman still believes the overall, decade-long bull mark in commodities is intact. It’s this short-term run that looks like it’s over.
On the dollar, Gartman believes it will strengthen and could even get to $1.47 versus the euro with ease. The momentum is on the side of the dollar now, he said.
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Trader disclosure: On Apr. 30, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (MSFT), (INTC); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (NOK), (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO); Pete Najarian Owns (C) Calls, (CHK) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (POT) Calls, (SBUX) Calls, (GA) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (HD), (KALU); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (SBUX), (TSO), (VLO), (DVA), (SUN); Finerman's Firm Owns (YHOO) And (YHOO) Call Spreads; Finerman's Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns (C) Leaps, Finerman Owns (C); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (MDY), (SPY), (IJR), (IWM); Seygem Asset Management Owns (ITU), (NIHD)
Gartman Owns (AAPL), (ADBE), (GOOG), (SJT); Gartman Is Short (DE); CIBC Gartman Index Owns Copper, Aluminum, Gold, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, The EUR, Natural Gas; CIBC Gartman Is Short Crude Oil; Gartman Owns (AAPL), (ADBE), (GOOG);Gartman Is Short (DE); CIBC Gartman Index Owns Copper, Aluminum, Gold, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, The EUR, Natural Gas
CIBC Gartman Is Short Crude Oil