Stay In May?
For a gardener May is a time to enjoy robust growth. Sadly, the same isn’t always true for an investor. Here why.
You’ve probably heard the expression, sell in May and go away! That’s because from 1950 to 2005, the Dow on average remained flat from May 1st until October 31st. (In case you’re wondering, during the other months of the year it gained 8% on average.)
But if you sell in May and go away this year you could be missing out on one of the best summer parties in years. The credit crunch has shown signs of easing, first quarter earnings were better than feared and the stock market -- led by the likes of Apple and Wal-Mart—has been springing off its low.
This May, is it time to go away or stay?
I think if you sell in May and went away, you’d miss the biggest opportunities of ’08, says Jon Najarian. I expect the dollar to go higher, and for crude to go down. Also, over the summer I think there could be opportunities to short some of the ag names such as Deere .
In addition, it helps to know that the best performing Dow stocks this time of year are typically Home Depot and Wal-Mart , says Najarian,as well as technology stocks Microsoft and Intel .
Normally I would fade this, but with the stimulus checks arriving I think you’d be crazy to fade HD and WMT, which are among the best performers in the DJIA. I like MSFT, but because of their proxy fight with Yahoo , I’d take a pass. Also, I think Intel could be a surprise winner.
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Trader disclosure: On Apr. 30, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (MSFT), (INTC); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (NOK), (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO); Pete Najarian Owns (C) Calls, (CHK) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (POT) Calls, (SBUX) Calls, (GA) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (HD), (KALU); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (SBUX), (TSO), (VLO), (DVA), (SUN); Finerman's Firm Owns (YHOO) And (YHOO) Call Spreads; Finerman's Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns (C) Leaps, Finerman Owns (C); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (MDY), (SPY), (IJR), (IWM); Seygem Asset Management Owns (ITU), (NIHD)
Jon Najarian Owns (HD), (WMT), (INTC); Jon Najarian Owns (JPM) Preferred Shares, (C) Preferred Shares