Skip navigation

Current DateTime: 01:02:28 14 Oct 2008
LinksList Documentid: 23371764
    • Identifying Capitulation: How to Tell We've Hit Bottom

        Are we there yet? That's the question on everyone's lips. People are praying for capitulation. We take a look at the charting features that will help to identify, first, the end of the market fall and second, the development of a market recovery.

Fast Money DisclaimerFast Money BiosAbout Fast MoneyRapid RecapFast Money Home
Text Size

Today's report on non-farm payrolls showed a loss of 20,000 jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate, now down to 5.0% from 5.1%.  The latest overall job loss numbers are much better than economists expected and still well below the six figure numbers seen in past recessions.  In the 2001 recession, monthly losses hit a high of 325,000. The 1990-91 recession peaked at 306,000 losses.  As you can see from the chart below, numbers peak toward the end of a recession (recessions are marked by grey bands), making employment a lagging indicator.   

Here is a breakdown of where the job losses were as well as which sectors were adding jobs.  Worst hit continue to be construction and manufacturing.  Education, Health Care and Professional Services added the most jobs.

Total change in non-farm payroll = - 20,000

  • Private Sector = -29,000
    • Natural Resources & Mining = -3,000
    • Construction = -61,000
    • Manufacturing = -46,000
    • Services = +81,000
      • Wholesale Trade = -10,600
      • Retail Trade = -26,800
      • Transportation = +1,200
      • Utilities = Unch
      • Information & Media = -2,000
      • Financial Svcs & Real Estate = +3,000
      • Professional & Business Svcs = +39,000
      • Education & Health Svcs = +52,000
      • Leisure = +18,000
  • Government = +9,000

On the news, the markets are poised to continue their rally.  Leading the Dow [.DJIA  Loading...      ()   ] in gains on the open are Citigroup [C  Loading...      ()   ], GM[GM  Loading...      ()   ], Bank of America [BAC  Loading...      ()   ], AIG[AIG  Loading...      ()   ], and American Express [AXP  Loading...      ()   ].

© 2008 CNBC.com

Permalink: /id/24426007

HOME  |  NEWS  |  MARKETS  |  EARNINGS  |  INVESTING  |  VIDEO  |  CNBC TV  |  CNBC PLUS  |  CNBC MOBILE  |  CNBC HD+
About CNBC   |   Site Map   |   Privacy Policy   |   Terms of Service   |   Advertise   |   Help   |   Feedback   |   Video Reprints
  Data is a real-time snapshot   *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes

Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis