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11:14 am: Buffett says "we are happy" to invest in companies that make money in foreign currencies, because he doesn't think those currencies will significantly depreciate against the U.S. dollar. He repeats his feeling that the dollar will continue to weaken over the next ten years. He doesn't specifically hedge against the U.S. dollar. If he came from Mars with "Mars currency" and had to exchange it, he probably wouldn't put all the money into dollars. He's happy to invest in companies that have significant earnings outside the U.S., such as Coca-Cola. "We're not in the business of hedging currencies."
11:18 am: What would Buffett do if he was investing with small sums of money? He replies it would open up "thousands of opportunities" for him in bonds, stocks, including stocks overseas. For example, found great opportunities in Korea a few years ago, but he couldn't put a lot of money into them. Most of the opportunities would be in small stocks. Charlie? "Sure."
11:22 am: Buffett says, "I think we have three pretty good candidates this time." Pandering is, unfortunately, part of the political process. This time the candidates are "pretty smart" about economics, especially two of the three. Political process doesn't lend itself to Lincoln-Douglas debates on the fine points of policy. It's built in. Country works pretty well no matter who is in office. "You want to buy stock in a company that's so good it can be run by an idiot, because sooner or latter it probably will." Same thing with the country.
11:29 am: On question of succession, Buffett says on CEO front have three ready who could step in a do a better job than I do, and the board knows which one it would pick if it had to do so right away. In the long-run, wants someone who is relatively young. On investment officer, as he said before, there are four candidates who have "good jobs now" and are happy where they are but "would be here tomorrow if I died." None of the four is concerned about compensation. None of them would want to come now because he's still making the decisions. "When I'm not around to make the decisions, the board will decide whether to have one, two, three or all four making the investment decisions." There will be no gap after his death, he says, and they'll probably be more energetic. This is he first time I've heard Buffett raise the possibility that his investment duties at Berkshire might not go to just one person after he stops doing the job.
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A snatched photo of Buffett as he and his swarm pushed past me on the exposition floor. |
11:34 am: Buffett says there have been a number of times over the years when he's been confident enough to put 75 percent of his net worth into an idea. Munger jokes there have been times when he's put in more than 100 percent of his net worth. Buffett says it doesn't happen often, but there are times when you'll see extraordinary opportunities and you should put 75 percent of your net worth into them. Just don't put in 500 percent of your net worth!
11:36 am: Charlie adds that many people say the secret of investment is diversification. They have it, he says, "bass ackwards." Diversification is for know-nothing investors, not professionals. Buffett adds that there's nothing wrong with being a know-nothing investor, and that they should diversify.
11:41 am: Woman asks if married couple's assets should be separated or managed in total? Buffett says its best to look at overall financial situation, not where individual assets are located. "Don't treat them as being in separate pots." When it comes to Berkshire, Buffett says he doesn't even think about which subsidiary might hold a particular investment. It's all for Berkshire." he then back-pedaled a bit, saying there's always the chance of divorce, and he's feeling uncomfortable giving marriage advice.
11:45 am: What happens on the day oil runs out? World War Three? Buffett says it doesn't work that way. Production will gradually be depleted over time. At some point, the world will hit peak production, then it will gradually taper down. We'll still be producing oil well into the century, just a question of how much. Nothing like an on or off switch for the world. There may be big political considerations surrounding access to the available oil, but there's nothing we can do in the short run to wean the world off of oil.
11:49 am: Munger says ultimately the world will have to use the sun as its energy source. "Crazy" to use up carbon-based fuels, for which there is no alternative. He says government policy on energy is not especially rational. Eventually to have a prosperous economy, we'll have to rely on the sun for energy. Munger seems more idealistic on the question, Buffett more pragmatic.
11:52 am: Questioner suggests Buffett and Munger each serve one term as President, starting with Buffett. Buffett replies that Charlie should serve first. Buffett then says if President, he would do something about the tax system, so that the super-rich pay more.
11:53 am: On ethanol, Charlie says the idea of turning food into fuel is one of the stupidest ever. he says he thinks its on the way out.
11:54 am: How would you invest your first million if you were just starting out and were not a full-time investor? Buffett's answer: a low-cost stock index fund with a company like Vanguard. Charlie says if you don't have any prospects of being a very skilled investor, you should go with an index fund. he and Buffett warn against listening to people who make money by telling you what to do with your money, although Charlie notes that some stockbrokers are perfectly honorable people.
11:58 am: What advice would you give to children on finances? Buffett says generally children will follow example of their parents, and will be sensible if the parents are sensible and live within their means with an eye to the future. He says it may sometimes be best to spend money on some things when you're young, such as a trip to Disney World that can create memories for your family. "I do not advocate extreme frugality."
12:02 pm: Someone in the crowd is yelling words I can't make out. Buffett ignores the commotion and breaks for lunch. He promises to continue answering questions a bit later. The lights come up, and after 3-1/2 hours the crowd starts to move around. Time for me to get lunch, too. The live blog will continue in about an hour.
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