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May.06

11:45 AM ET

Tuesday, 6 May 2008

Intrade Futures on Political Primaries in North Carolina & Indiana and Oil

Posted By:Gina Francolla

Sectors:Oil and Gas

As Senators Clinton and Obama square off in Indiana and North Carolina, are the Intrade Political Futures Markets (www.intrade.com) forecasting a split decision?

A rundown of the active Political Futures contracts from Intrade:

Contracts for the Democratic Nomination:
Obama's Intrade futures contract on his chance of winning the Democratic nomination, [OBAMA08 Loading... ()] is currently showing that Obama has a 77.20% probability of receiving the Democratic nod, and is off his lifetime high of an 88.5% probability.
*The 77.20% probability is not yet a "knock out punch" according to Intrade. On average, a clear winner per the Intrade markets is not indicated until a contract is trading regularly above a 90% or 95% probability.

Clinton's Intrade futures contract on her chance of winning the Democratic nomination [CLINTON08 Loading... ()] is currently showing that Clinton has a 20.60% probability of receiving the Democratic nod, off her lifetime high of 74.9% probability, but also significantly off her lows of an 11.6% probability.

Intrade Contracts for the North Carolina and Indiana Primaries for Clinton and Obama:
Obama's contract on the probability of winning North Carolina [OBAMA.NC Loading... ()] is showing Obama as the clear front runner at a 92.9% probability of winning the state and trading near the lifetime high of a 93.3% probability.

Clinton's contract on the probability of winning North Carolina [CLINTON.NC Loading... ()] is currently showing almost no chance for Clinton to win the state, at a less than 10% probability, well off her lifetime high of a 34% probability of winning North Carolina.

Clinton's contract on the probability of winning Indiana [CLINTON.IN Loading... ()] is showing Clinton as the strong front runner at an 91.50% probability of winning, and at a lifetime high of winning the state.

Obama's contract on the probability of winning Indiana [OBAMA.IN Loading... ()] is currently showing Obama at an only 8.10% probability of winning the state, and well off his lifetime high for this contract of an 80% probability to win.

Intrade Contracts to win the Presidency in 2008: The Intrade markets are leaning towards McCain or Obama to win the presidency, but nobody is yet the clear front runner, and Clinton has not been fully cut out of the race.
Obama's presidential contract [OBAMA.P Loading... ()] is currently showing a 43.10% probability that he will win the presidency in '08 according to the Intrade markets, off his lifetime high of a 64% probability to win, so it is still an open election.

McCain's presidential contract [MCCAIN.P Loading... ()] is currently showing a 39.60% probability that he will win the presidency in '08, slightly off his lifetime high of 41.40%, but still a solid candidate.

Clinton's presidential contract [CLINTON.P Loading... ()] is currently showing a 18.50% probability that she will win the presidency in '08, off her lifetime high of 50.2%, but also off her low of a 5.2% probability to win.

As record oil prices [US@CL.1 Loading... ()] and a gas tax become a focus point for the candidates, where do the Intrade markets predict oil will close out the year?

The Intrade contract for oil closing out the year at or greater than $100 per barrel [OIL.100 Loading... ()] is currently at a 71.5% probability according to the Intrade markets, and the contract is at its lifetime high.

The Intrade contract for oil closing out the year at or greater than $115 per barrel is currently at a 60% probability [OIL.115 Loading... ()] according to the Intrade markets, up over 20% just today, and also at its lifetime high.