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The Next Stop For Oil


A new day, a new record price for crude oil. Is this becoming a long-term trend or is the momentum due to break?

Oppenheimer’s Carter Worth thinks oil is due for a retrenching, even if it is only a pause in an overall move higher over time.

Looking at the chart of crude, Worth noticed that the price move from the low in February to the current high is “almost identical” to the move it made from last August to November – roughly 40%. These similar intermediate moves in the price signal to Worth that oil is likely to go back to $110 before it sees $130.

Oppenheimer’s Carter Worth thinks oil is due for a retrenching, even if it is only a pause in an overall move higher over time.

John Kilduff of MF Global, however, doesn’t see it that way. Speaking on Tuesday’s Closing Bell alongside Worth, Kilduff said oil seems to continue to benefit from a perfect storm of supply outages and steady to increasing demand. Even if Americans begin to use less gas as prices at the pump skyrocket, it likely won’t matter because demand will continue to increase in China.

Kilduff’s best trade is natural gas, which he sees as the cheapest play in the energy complex. And, whatever you do, he said, stay away from the refiners, where oil is an input cost and thus hurts margins.

Worth would short crude oil on his thesis that it’s headed lower, but get long specific energy stocks like ConocoPhillips , Chevron and El Paso that don’t reflect the price of oil.

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