Current Housing Indicators |
| CURRENT | PREVIOUS | ||
| Existing Home Sales | 4.49m | ▼ | 4.74m |
| New Home Sales | 309,000 | ▼ | 344,000 |
| Housing Starts | 583,000 | ▲ | 477,000 |
| Building Permits | 547,000 | ▲ | 531,000 |
| HMI | 9 | UNCH | 9 |
| Existing Home Prices | $170,300 | ▼ (annually) | $199,800 |
| New Home Prices | $201,100 | ▼ (annually) | $232,400 |
- Citi Mortgage Reveals What Treasury Won't
- Investors May Skew Housing Reality
- 100% Mortgage Financing From USDA
- Despite Government Aid, Foreclosure Crisis is Not Improving
- Housing Data Delivers Mixed Messages
- Appraisals Now Center Stage in Housing Recovery
- Underwater Mortgages Could Sink Even Deeper
- First Time Buyers Rescue Housing: Realtors
- Housing Recovery 'Still In Uncharted Territory': HUD Secretary
- Shadow Inventory Dwarfs Loan Mods
MOST SHARED
- The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed
- Wednesday's Economic News Crunch Could Tilt Markets
- NBA D-League On The Rise
- Obama Reiterates Commitment to Boost US-India Ties
- Japan Export Rebound Eases Fear of New Recession
- Australia Wheat Exporters Face Challenges: GrainCorp
- The Social Media Gaming Threat
- Stifling Anger at Work Can Kill, Survey Finds
- Why You Should Play the Reflation Trade: Stock Picker
- Citi Mortgage Reveals What Treasury Won't
- S&P to Hit 1,200 by Year-End: Chief Investor
- Amended Berkshire Hathaway Filing Indicates No Secret Stock Stakes at End of Q3
- Facebook's Biggest-Ever Holiday Shopping Season
- Facebook's New Dual Class Structure - Slow Steps to an IPO
- 5 Big Bank Stocks Investors Should Consider: Strategists
- Gambling Drunk, Texting to Live And America's On Sale - Your Emails
- Nov. 24: Unusual Volume Leaders
- Americans Ditch Planes for Trains this Thanksgiving
- AIG Board OKs CEO Pay; Benmosche Agrees to Stay
- Half of Banks' Losses May Still Be Hidden: IMF Head
- Obama Reiterates Commitment to Boost US-India Ties
- FDIC's Bair Cautions on Risks in Bank Break-Up Plan
- Wednesday's Economic News Crunch Could Tilt Markets
- Call Me Crazy: Confessions of a Black Friday Shopper
- Turkey Day 101: How Well Do You Know Your Bird?
- Citi Mortgage Reveals Something the US Treasury Won't
RSS FEED
Realty Check
![]() |
Mel Evans / AP |
New home sales are down nearly 37 percent from a year ago, prices in March were down 13 percent and inventories are up to an 11-month supply. So who in their right mind would stick a shovel in the ground?
Take a breath, and I’ll tell you who: Builders who need to survive. That’s what UBS analyst David Goldberg told me: “There are some pressures, especially on smaller private builders, to kind of build through the inventory they have in progress, to work what they have in progress to try to generate some cash. I think it's nothing more than a blip from that direction.”
But you have to dig deeper into the numbers to see what’s really going on here. First off, the margins of error in this report are always huge; on starts alone it’s +/- 14.5 percent. But on top of that, the starts number was totally skewed by new multi-family starts (apartments) not single family. Multi’s were up 40.5 percent month-to-month, while single-family starts were down 1.7 percent (and that’s for the 12th straight month).
Many analysts are simply sticking today’s numbers in the recycle bin, as I’d like to do as well.
Global Insight’s Chief U.S. Financial Economist Brian Bethune says:“We would not read too much into the April housing report beyond statistical noise.” Pali Capital’s Stephen East argues that the stock market’s surge on this news: “is the wrong reaction…At this point in the Housing cycle, only two metrics that report stronger than expected results—Sales and Pricing—should be rewarded in the market.”
I frankly can’t understand why anyone would think a bump in starts and especially permits is good news in any way, when home builders can’t give their houses away and immense quarterly write-downs of their assets scream that from the rooftops!
The builders will recover, but not until inventories come down and prices stop falling. Today’s numbers are not just a blip; they’re a joke, and a not too funny one at that.
Questions? Comments?








