When Boone Pickens speaks, we know the oil market listens. But we were very interested to see that Birinyi Associates were listening as well whenPickens was interviewed by Becky Quick on "Squawk Box" today.
Look at the chart below. Birinyi director of research Jeff Rubin went back over the last 18 comments made by Pickens and charted oil's move.
For the most part, Rubin says Pickens' predictions were right, and it appears his views should not be ignored. "He has an insight that most investors lack," Rubin told me.
Of course there was that time this year when Pickens was on the wrong side of the chart (number 14) and said oil was moving lower, but otherwise, not a bad record. We might also dispute his comment that $80 oil could push the U.S. into a recession. (number 9), and of course, we have yet to see whether his latest forecast is right (numbers 17 and 18).
Pickens said today that he expects oil to go to $150 per barrel this year. He also says that at $100 per barrel, the U.S. consumes about $600 billion in oil annually, money that is flowing out of the United States.
Pickens is a big investor in wind energy, and he is a proponent of increasing the use of natural gas as an oil replacement. He said wind could ultimately be a big contributor, but ethanol will not be. (see the full interview)
"We pay attention to anyone whose record we can point to as being right. One of our hallmarks is we track what people are saying," said Rubin.
I would imagine those who are mostly right is probably not a very long list.
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