Andrew B. Busch is the founder of andrewbusch.com, a research and consulting firm. Prior to, Andrew was the global currency and public policy strategist for BMO Capital Markets, the investment and corporate banking arm of BMO Financial Group. He is a senior fellow on economic issues for the Illinois Policy Institute and an American Action Forum Expert. Busch consults with the staffs from the U.S. treasury, congress, and the White House on economic and financial market issues.
He was an advisor on the economy and the financial markets to U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Busch met recently with all the most senior staff at the U.S. Treasury. He has met and advised the last three U.S. Treasury Secretaries including Tim Geithner.
Busch is a recognized expert on the world financial markets and how these markets are impacted by political events. Busch recently spoke at the Pacific Economic Conference in Russia on the global credit crisis. He met and consulted with the governor of Primorsky Territory and the mayor of Vladivostok over the future direction of the Russian economy.
Busch has appeared for the last three years on CNBC's "Closing Bell " with Maria Bartiromo and is a CNBC contributor. He is regularly quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Reuters News Services, Dow Jones News Services, Associated Press, and The Globe and Mail.
Busch is a prolific writer whose views appear daily in his newsletter, the Busch Update. Monthly, he writes the Busch GPS: Global Political Strategy. Lastly, his book, "World Event Trading: How to Analyze and Profit from Today's Headlines" was translated into Mandarin in 2008 and into Japanese in 2009.
He joined BMO Financial Group in 1990 in the foreign exchange trading room of Harris Trust and Savings Bank, which merged with Bank of Montreal's room in 1995. Prior to joining Harris, Busch traded foreign exchange at Northern Trust Company.
Busch graduated Phi Beta Kappa with a B.A. in economics from Ohio Wesleyan University in 1983, and received his MBA from the University of Chicago in 1988.
First up, the end of a two year US political campaign. For the first time in modern political history, we had a state primary occur in the year prior to the election year. In the great wisdom of "Me First", individual states all began to move their primaries forward to enable them to remain relevant in the campaign.
Barclay's has turned against current progressive thinking and shunned government bailout money. They have decided to raise their own capital by selling GBP 5.8 billion of convertible notes to Middle East investors.
The weekend was extremely busy in the world of finance. Starting in South Korea, this nation cut its overnight interest rates by 75 basis points to 4.25%. Genuflecting at the altar of low rates/high liquidity, the Bank of Korea cut rates for the 2nd time this month and by the most ever in one move as the country is experiencing drastically lower growth (0.6% GDP) and a shut off of lending to smaller firms.
The equity market collapse began in the Far East as Sony shares slide 14 pct after they issued a profit warning. The electronics maker cut its profit forecast in half as the strong Japanese yen and the ongoing credit crisis is hurting demand for its cameras and flat TVs.
It seems there is a global effort to exacerbate the problems and worries of the world. Let's start in Japan where Prime Minister Taro Aso said today that people should not be over-concerned about daily movements in Japanese share prices, after the benchmark Nikkei average fell to a 5-year low.
I was thinking about that $43 billion withdrawn from hedge funds in the September quarter. I think I failed to extend the thought. If hedge funds are 4 times levered, the $43 billion becomes $172 billion in securities that had to be sold for the redemptions.
The extreme moves in the emerging markets had a very distinct feel of forced sales due to margin calls or redemption calls. With the Brazilian stock market closing after a drop of 10% and the currency vanishing, we are experiencing a evaporation of liquidity as flows go all in one direction.