John Kilduff is the founding partner of Again Capital. Prior to starting his company, he was vice president and co-head of MF Global and senior VP of Energy Risk Management Group at Fimat USA, where he was responsible for providing corporate energy risk management services. He also has held senior positions at ABN AMRO, Metallgesellschaft Corp. and Lehman Brothers.
Kilduff appeared before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources to give an assessment of the energy markets.
He has a Bachelor of Science degree from Saint Bonaventure University and a Juris Doctor from Fordham University School of Law. He has a bar membership in New York and has professional registrations in commodities and securities.
Follow John Kilduff on Twitter @KilduffReport.
The selling pressure across markets overnight is a tide that is sinking all boats, including oil and all commodities for that matter. If it can be sold, it is being sold, right now. In terms of oil, specifically, support levels that traders have looked to determine prices bottoms have been taken out in succession, over the past several months.
Energy prices gave up the proverbial ghost this week, as the collective factors that combined to produce $147 per barrel of crude oil in July continue their unravel. However, taking center stage, at the moment, is OPEC’s meeting in Vienna, and their decision, considered or otherwise, about a possible cut in production.
The energy crisis has been pushed to the back burner–pardon the pun–by the financial market concerns and yesterday’s dramatic failure of leadership on Capitol Hill. The credit fears represent a tide that is sinking all boats.
I have stated that forecasts from some of my fellow analysts on Wall Street of crude oil hitting $150 by the end of the year were too rich for my blood. However, similar calls for sub-$80 crude were too low. I would look for oil to retake the $100 level, and maintain it through the fourth quarter.
OPEC ministers went ahead with a decision to reduce oil output, as they set out to defend the $100 price level for crude oil. ... The majority of members prevailed upon a reluctant Saudi Arabia to go along with the reduction. It is not surprising to see Saudi Arabia go along...
I am looking for crude oil prices to re-take the $130 per barrel level, as soon as next week. We need to see what Iran does over the weekend, and further parsing of the economic data points will also be required to better infer a lasting trend.
Energy watchers need pay close attention to the outcome of the Saturday meeting in Geneva, among Iran, European Union representatives, and most interestingly, the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has confirmed that this meeting represents a change in U.S. policy toward Iran.
As I have been saying, much of the recent sizzle in the race toward almost daily record price levels is attributable to the tensions over Iran, and the recent tangible statements and actions by Israel, Iran, and the US, in terms of military exercises.
The commodity sector appears to have taken a roman candle shot to the head over the Fourth of July Holiday weekend. The spikes in crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, corn, copper, cocoa, too name several, have been largely erased.