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While the bears are clearly running the show on Wall Street, Fast Money’s Jon Najarian is seeing signs that a rally could be ahead.
He looks first to the VIX, the CBOE’s measure of volatility in the market, to make his case. The spread between the front and back month contracts was five points just weeks ago, which signals to Najarian that investors were overconfident.
But the drops in the S&P [.SPX
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]and Dow Industrials [.DJIA
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]over the last month, and the subsequent backwardation in the VIX where the front month contracts are now higher than the back month, is indicative that the market could be setting up for a rally, Najarian said. Capitulation is here, at least in some stocks.
Some of the financials are still likely to see more downside, he said, and he’d keep an eye out for a “washout” in the XLF [XLF
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] before buying back in.
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Trader disclosure: On June 20, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (BTU), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns (INTC), (MSFT), (WMT), (DIS); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (BHI), (CHK), (ENER), (NOK), (TSO), (XLF), (HPQ); Najarian Owns (MER) Puts; Najarian Owns (MYGN) Calls, (SD) Calls; Najarian Owns (HRB) Puts; Quint Tatro Is The Principal Of Tatro Capital; Tatro Owns (C), (DV), (PETS), (STRA), (ESLR), (GLD), (GLW), (GS), (QQQQ), (RIMM), (SDS); Tatro Capital Owns (SLV), (ASTI); Tatro Capital Owns (USO) Puts
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes