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ABOUT THE KUDLOW CAUCUS

Larry Kudlow has gathered a group of top money managers, influential journalists and well-known political pundits to form the Kudlow Caucus. Twelve of Kudlow's highly experienced regular contributors will be surveyed (weekly) on issues key to the CNBC audience concerning money, politics and stocks.

Gain valuable insight from the best minds in the business as they reveal their predictions, expectations and insights on all important issues impacting the economy, Wall Street, Washington policy and America's prosperity.

Initial Kudlow Caucus results will air on Kudlow & Co. Monday through Friday from 7pm - 8pm ET. Look for the detailed explanations behind the votes here on the Kudlow website.

SHOW TIMES

CNBC US:
Weeknights 7p ET

CNBC Asia:
Saturday 06:00 SIN/HK
Sunday 04:00 SIN/HK

CNBC Europe:
Monday - Friday 10:00 CET
Saturday 06:00 CET
Sunday 04:00 CET
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January 20, 2009
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Jun.27
3:32 PM ET
Friday, 27 Jun 2008
Is the Stock Market Doomed?

As stocks move back into a full-fledged bear market, you might expect a lot of fear from investors.

Background information:


We asked our panel:

Is the stock market doomed?

Results:

YES 4

NO 8






The Kudlow Caucus Breakdown

Stefan Abrams

NO
Stefan Abrams
Managing Partner, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management
Absolutely not. The mere fact that you are posing this question tells me we are approaching a capitulation phase during which the last of the weak holders will soon be flushed out, and the ownership of our nation’s capital stock will move into the hands of knowledgeable long term investors, where it belongs.

Joe Battipaglia

YES
Joe Battipaglia
Market Strategist, Stifel Nicolaus
The correction will continue until investors finally adjust to slow economic growth, the continuing credit shakeout and resulting lower earnings expectations.

Jared Bernstein

NO
Jared Bernstein
Senior Economist, Economic Policy Institute
No, of course not. It's just got more false bottoms than a magician's suitcase. There are major economic headwinds out there, and the U.S. economy has been growing way below trend for three quarters (07Q4-08Q2). It's called the business cycle and financial markets are not immune.

Jerry Bowyer

NO
Jerry Bowyer
Chief Economist, Benchmark Financial Network
Forget fatalism – leadership matters. John McCain could break with his present fuzzy thinking and embrace his Reaganite roots. It’s up to him. Obama could break with his hard left roots and embrace the neglected JFK legacy. Even if we investors end up stuck with 4 years of euro-socialism, we can still find ways to work around it, and survive while the electorate relearns how the world really works.

Vince Farrell

NO
Vince Farrell
Scotsman Capital Management
Stocks are priced (almost) to the worst case. The market will recover although I can't see a rally if the Fed/Treasury don't act to defend the dollar.

Jim Lacamp

NO
Jim LaCamp
Portfolio Manager, Portfolio Focus, RBC Wealth Management
Co-Host, Opening Bell Radio Show, Biz Radio Network
We have now broken the January and March lows...and haven't attacked October highs. This is a bear trend. But cash on sidelines, lack of alternatives and many pockets of earnings strength should make this a somewhat ephemeral bear.

Art Laffer
NO
Art Laffer
Fmr. Reagan Economic Advisor
Chief Investment Officer, Laffer Investments
The stock market is not doomed but it is in a lot of trouble. I would expect a nice rally sometime between now and mid 2009, but long term I don’t think that there will be a major positive change in valuations unless there are drastic improvements in proposed macro economic policies.
Donald Luskin

NO
Donald L. Luskin
Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics LLC
Of course the stock market is not doomed. It was lower on March 17, and it wasn't doomed then. Why should it be doomed now?

Five out of ten S&P 500 sectors are at all-time high forward earnings. Nominal interest rates are low and real interest rates are negative.

Give me a break. The very fact that you are asking that question means it's time to buy. Buck up.

Steve Moore

YES
Steve Moore
Sr. Economics Writer, The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
It's doomed until the fed reverses course and starts raising interest rates to strengthen the dollar.

James Pethokoukis

YES
James Pethokoukis
Sr. Writer, U.S. News & World Report (Money & Business)
While stocks have long shaken off higher oil prices, the weak dollar plus a superspike in prices are really weighing on today's market. I think oil prices will come down and the dollar strengthen, but that could coincide with the realization that a President Obama (the likely election winner) means the most anti-investor policies seen in a generation. Always invest for the long-term, of course, but the "long term" might be very long indeed.

Robert Reich

NO
Robert Reich
Former Labor Secretary
Professor of Public Policy, UC Berkeley

But don't look for a major turnaround any time soon. Consumers are tapped out -- deep in debt, facing higher fuel and food costs, and worried about their jobs. Their homes, which have been their piggy banks, are still losing value. Remember: Consumer spending is 70 percent of the economy. We won't see an end to this recession until wages start rising, or we get a more progressive tax system, or both.

Gary Shilling
YES
Gary Shilling
A. Gary Shilling & Co. President
With the recession and financial crises deepening and spreading, stock market declines to the 2002 lows of 7286 for the Dow, 777 for the S&P 500 and 1114 for the NASDAQ are not unthinkable. If so, the advance since then would be a bear market rally in the decline that commenced in March 2000.

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