Oil traders are jittery about a conflict between Iran and Israel and continued unrest in Nigeria but how dangerous are these threats?

According to Ian Bremmer, president of political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group there’s a growing belief overseas that Barack Obama will be the next American President and that he's less likely to get involved in any kind of military action. Because of that belief Isreal is posturing now.

"The Israeli front is where you have to worry,” he says. “The issue is, who is the likely the next Prime Minister and we’re not going to know until September or October. I think at that point you can start talking about real prospects of Israeli strikes.”

If Israel were to launch a strike on Iran expect oil to trade very close to $200 very quickly, says Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

In the meantime oil prices could come down in the short term. Bremmer also tells CNBC to expect a story in the next day about “suspension for suspension” coming out of Iran. In other words if Europe and the US agree to lift sanctions Iran will stop building centrifuges. "Markets will like that and oil should come down as a result," he says.

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Trader disclosure: On July 1, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (C), (AGU), (BTU), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns SPX Index Puts; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (SBUX); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (NOK), (TSO), (XLF); Pete Najarian Owns (HBC) Puts, (MER) Puts, (RIMM) Calls, (SLB) Calls, (UBS) Calls, (WM) Calls, (YHOO) Calls; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (CFC), (F), (MER), (MSFT), (TSO), (TSL); Seygem Asset Management Owns (TTM), (PKX), (FMX); Seygem Asset Management Owns Shares Of Grupo Modelo

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