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Will ECB Chief Trichet ruin your July 4th vacation along with the global economy and hike rates Thursday?
Be prepared, for the dollar could take a hit on Thursday. Investors had been hoping that the ECB might talk down inflation ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting instead of actually taking action.
However the odds of that being the case seem infinitely less likely after a German paper quoted ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet as saying, There is a risk inflation will "explode" if the European Central Bank does not act decisively to counter it.
Markets have priced in a hike in the ECB's key refinancing rate to 4.25 percent from 4.0 percent when the bank sets policy Thursday.
What does this mean for the U.S. stock market? For further insights we turn to strategic investor Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter. Following is a summary of his main points made on Fast Money.
I think it's all but a foregone conclusion that the ECB raises rates, says Gartman. And they will focus attention on inflation. But that’s no surprise. All of it is probably priced into the market. I think it will be like the meeting never happened.
If you’re going to trade the news, I’d say sell the dollar, buy gold and buy commodities, counsels Gartman.
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Trader disclosure: On July 2, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (ITNC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (MSFT), (PM); Finerman's Firm Owns SPX Index Puts; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman's Firm Owns (GE) And (GE) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (XME) And Owns (XME) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (CHK), (HPQ), (TSO), (XLF); Najarian Owns (MER) Puts; Najarian Owns (SLB) Calls, (WM) Calls, (YHOO) Calls, (ZRAN) Calls ;Seymour Owns (AAPL), (F), (MER), (MSFT), (TSO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EEM), (TTM)
Gartman Owns (ATW), (GLD), (AFFY), (MRK), (JJG), (ADBE), (SJT), (BPT), (EWC), (PBR), (PLL), (TOWN), (SDS); Gartman Is Short (WFMI), (ING), (BP), (BA), (TLT), (XOM), (BIDU); CIBC Gartman Index Owns Copper, Aluminum, Gold, Corn, Soybeans, Natural Gas, 10 Year Canadian Bond, Canadian Dollar, Euro; CIBC Gartman Index Is Short Sugar; CIBC Gartman Index Is Short Crude Oil
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes