GO
Loading...

Independence Day and the Markets

Historically on average, the U.S. Markets have been relatively flat the week after Independence Day, with not much left to cheer about. However, the Dow and Nasdaq Composite have been up ~60% of the time for the week following the 4th of July, while the S&P has been up ~70% of the time.

Dow Jones Average

  • The day after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.03%, Best of 3.58% in 2002, Worst -4.5% in 1931.
  • One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.21%, Best of 4.12% in 1934, Worst -6.79% in 1931.
  • One Month after Independence Day, an average gain of ~1%, Best of 34.3% in 1932, Worst -15% in 1903.

S&P 500

  • The day after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.06%, Best of 3.67% in 2002, Worst -3.91% in 1931.
  • One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.53%, Best of 4.52% in 1937, Worst -5.3% in 1931.
  • One Month after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.86%, Best of 41.7% in 1932, Worst -11.2% in 1933.

Nasdaq Composite

  • The day after Independence Day, an average loss of -0.18%, Best of 4.94% in 2002, Worst -3.23% in 2000.
  • One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.09%, Best of 4.24% in 2003, Worst -7.88% in 2001.
  • One Month after Independence Day, an average loss of -0.66 %, Best of 9.4% in 1997, Worst-10.8% in 1986.

Although, the S&P could slide into bear territory the day after Independence Day, should it close below 1252, here are the S&P’s best performers year to date:

  • Big Lots , up 97.3% YTD
  • Nabors Industries , up 68.8% YTD
  • Chesapeake Energy , up 62% YTD
  • Celgene Corporation , up 47.9% YTD
  • Ryder System , up 42.5% YTD
  • bythenumbers.cnbc.com