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The Dow [.DJIA Loading... ()
] slipped on Monday as investors worried that plans to shore up the government sponsored mortgage companies won't be enough to counter balance fallout from the housing slump.-------------------------------
FREDDIE AND FANNIE: PERILOUS ADVENTURE
Fannie Mae [FNM
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] and Freddie Mac [FRE
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] could not hold the gains they made early on Monday as questions remained over what the U.S. government's sweeping rescue plan means for shareholders.
Fannie's and Freddie's shares initially soared after the U.S. government and central bank said on Sunday they would lend money to Fannie and Freddie and buy their equity if needed to rescue the two pillars of the U.S. housing market.
But the gains soon fizzled as analysts and investors noted any direct government investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would further dilute existing shares -- the last thing investors want, especially given the spectacular drops in the shares in the past year.
It doesn’t feel like the market completely believes what the government is saying, muses Karen Finerman.
And we have too much leverage in the financial system,” adds Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital on Fast Money. “We have bad assets in the wake of the housing bubble. That’s a problem.”
This bank sell-off started much like the French Revolution, exclaims Jeff Macke. In the beginning it was a pretty good idea but it ended with innocent victims getting their heads lopped off! (In case you’re wondering today is Bastille Day.)
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MUTUAL DISDAIN
Shares of Washington Mutual [WM
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] and National City [NCC
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] plunged Monday afternoon as investors shied away from banks with large mortgage portfolios after IndyMac Bancorp [IMB
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] failed late Friday and was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Analyst Bruce Harting wrote in a research note that Washington Mutual will need to "substantially" increase its loss reserves to cover still mounting losses in its mortgage portfolio.
Some of the regional banks present great risk returns, says Karen Finerman. Most will survive but I wouldn’t go near them right now because you can’t know which one or two won’t.
It’s clear to me that the market thinks there’s more to come, adds Joe Terranova.
“Next, I think you’ll see weakness in the credit card areas,” says Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital. "And in the interest of full disclosure I’m short Capital One [COF
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]."
I think you can look at Banco Santander [STD
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], from the long side, adds Tim Seymour. They’re the second largest bank in Europe and they just announced that they will acquire U.K. mortgage lender Alliance & Leicester. It’s not all bad news.
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JUST PRECIOUS
Gold ended above $970 an ounce on Monday, trading at its highest level in nearly four months as lingering fears of financial market instability and rising inflation boosted buying of the metal for its safe-haven appeal.
Investors are genuinely concerned about the economic landscape right now, explains Joe Terranova. Call if a safe heaven trade but gold is moving higher. It’s also worth noting that the last time gold traded at these levels was right before the Bear Stearns debacle, he says.
No matter how they fix the Freddie Fannie mess, it’s probably going to be dollar negative and that gets investor going into gold, adds Jeff Macke.
Look at Barrick [ABX
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], counsels Tim Seymour. And Anglo American[AAUK
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] out of South Africa. Both names appear attractive.
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FERTILE TRADES
The ag space rallied on Monday after commodities including corn, wheat and soybeans fell on favorable weather conditions in the Midwest.
I think there’s so much more risk in ag names such as Potash [POT
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] at these high levels, says Karen Finerman than there is in a Citigroup [C
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] or any name that’s been badly beaten up.
Potash’s 10-year chart is not a chart that occurs in nature, says Jeff Macke. The trend will break eventually, but I think you can play the name, at least for now.
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BREAKING NEWS: KIMBERLY-CLARK
Shares of Kimberly Clark [KMB
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] sank in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the maker of Kleenex tissues and other consumer products reported preliminary second-quarter results that were below analysts' estimates.
Their results, however were not an absolute disaster, adds Karen Finerman. The miss wasn't horrible. Still I’d stick with Procter & Gamble [KMB Loading...