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Fed Expects Higher Inflation, Sluggish Growth

Following are the U.S. economic forecasts for 2008, 2009 and 2010 from the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress issued on Tuesday.

SUMMARY TABLE OF 'CENTRAL TENDENCY' FORECASTS

2008
2009
2010
Real GDP 1.0-1.6 2.0-2.8 2.5-3.0
Unemployment 5.5-5.7 5.3-5.8 5.0-5.6
PCE price index 3.8-4.2 2.0-2.3 1.8-2.0
Core PCE index 2.2-2.4 2.0-2.2 1.8-2.0

CENTRAL TENDENCY FORECASTS COMPARED WITH PRIOR FORECASTS

Real GDP
2008
2009
2010
June 1.0-1.6 2.0-2.8 2.5-3.0
April 0.3-1.2 2.0-2.8 2.6-3.1
January 1.3-2.0 2.1-2.7 2.5-3.0
November 1.8-2.5 2.3-2.7 2.5-2.6
Unemployment
June 5.5-5.7 5.3-5.8 5.0-5.6
April 5.5-5.7 5.2-5.7 4.9-5.5
January 5.2-5.3 5.0-5.3 4.9-5.1
November 4.8-4.9 4.8-4.9 4.7-4.9
PCE price index
June 3.8-4.2 2.0-2.3 1.8-2.0
April 3.1-3.4 1.9-2.3 1.8-2.0
January 2.1-2.4 1.7-2.0 1.7-2.0
November 1.8-2.1 1.7-2.0 1.6-1.9
Core PCE index
June 2.2-2.4 2.0-2.2 1.8-2.0
April 2.2-2.4 1.9-2.1 1.7-1.9
January 2.0-2.2 1.7-2.0 1.7-1.9
November 1.7-1.9 1.7-1.9 1.6-1.9

COMPARISON OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND BLUE CHIP FORECASTS

Real GDP
2008
2009
2010
Fed 1.0-1.6 2.0-2.8 2.5-3.0
Blue Chip 1.0 2.3 n/a
Unemployment
Fed 5.5-5.7 5.3-5.8 5.0-5.6
Blue Chip 5.8 5.8 n/a

Note: Blue Chip Economic Indicators does not provide a forecast for the PCE price index. The Blue Chip consensus forecast for the consumer price index, fourth quarter over fourth quarter, is 4.1 percent for 2008 and 2.5 percent for 2009. In answer to a special question in the latest Blue Chip survey, respondents said they expected the core CPI to rise 2.5 percent, December over December, in 2008 and 2.4 percent in 2009.

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