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Tracking Dolly - Update on Probability of Disruption

As Dolly intensifies and moves into the Gulf of Mexico, here is Weather Insight's latest forecast for possible oil and gas disruptions. Red dots are aggregates of production areas. Blue dots are buoys / ships. Yellow dots are Deep Water platforms (not included in the red dots). Since yesterday afternoon, the storm's trajectory has shifted south and west, reducing the probability of disruption.

Weather Insight projects that 35% of Oil production and 45% of Natural Gas production may experience short term shut-ins as a worst case scenario. There is a less than 10% probability for long term disruption.

Oil is down on the reduced risks and the equity markets are up in response. Leading the S&P 500 to the upside right now are UnitedHealth (UNH), Wachovia (WB), Coventry Health (CVH), Waters Corp (WAT) and Stanley Works (SWK).

bythenumbers.cnbc.com