STOCKS STALL THIS WEEK
The Dow finished only modestly higher on Friday after better-than-expected data on consumer sentiment and falling oil prices failed to really ignite investor optimism.
The market went nowhere Friday and at the end of the day it should have, says Joe Terranova on Fast Money. I’m a little worried about next week. I bought some gold.
I think the market is digesting a strong move, counters Quint Tatro. Earlier this summer we had huge moves and then, bam, we gave it all back. But this week the S&P did nothing. If we get a higher low I think that’s a positive.
BANKS ROLLING OVER AGAIN
Bank stocks wobbled Friday as investors weighed a potential S&P downgrade on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac .
Also Wachovia dragged down the sector after a Morgan Keegan analyst said the stock's 73 percent rise in seven trading days wasn't justified in light of its credit problems.
Meanwhile CNBC has learned that Lehman has considered selling at least part of its Neuberger Berman asset management unit. If Lehman sold the entire unit the deal could fetch around $8 billion.
The credit crisis hasn’t gone away, exclaims Pete Najarian. The financials still have a lot of problems and I think the S&P didn’t climb because investors are starting to look ahead and see what lies ahead.
I agree with Pete, adds Tim Seymour. Action in Fannie and Freddie suggests to me there’s more trouble ahead.
ENERGY STOCKS WORST PERFORMERS ON WEEK
Oil declined Friday sending crude prices to a seven week low due largely to increased supply and falling demand. Not good for oil bulls but most analysts agree that a continued slide in crude prices would be good for consumers.
We've put a lot of emphasis on oil in this market, says Pete Najarian. But Friday's slide couldn't move the broader stock market if investors are worried about next week.
Also the market seems to be trading technically, adds Tim Seymour.
I've been getting pinged all day, says Joe Terranova, by oil traders telling me it's going to break $120 next week. We'll see.
GOLD DROPS 3% THIS WEEK
Gold ended higher on Friday as weakness from U.S. equities boosted bullion's alternative investment appeal, despite pressure from lower oil prices and a stronger dollar.
I’d use the pullback as an opportunity, counsels Joe Terranova. It’s a great hedge. I'm playing defense.
I’m a seller, counters Tim Seymour. I don’t see it as a safe haven.
Traders can’t seem to make heads or tails of technology. This week’s Microsoft analyst meeting did little to buoy investor sentiment and Apple’s outlook was also less than thrilling.
However, several brokers raised their price targets on chip maker Qualcomm and Juniper climbed substantially after the network equipment maker raised its full-year outlook and reported a 40 percent rise in quarterly profit.
It goes to show you have to be selective, says Pete Najarian. I like Cisco in wireless as well as Juniper. But again, you have to be stock specific.
I think investors should look at RIM, adds Joe Terranova.
I’d look at IBM instead, adds Quint Tatro.
IS THE BROKEN CHINA TRADE BACK ON?
The iShares China ETF is down 20% year to date on concerns that China’s red hot economy is starting to cool off. But low growth in China is still something like 9%. Should you buy into China ahead of next month's Olympics?
I think it’s time to look at China again. If I were to play emerging markets I’d be very happy to get long China, says Tim Seymour. I think these are oversold conditions.
China is interesting to me too, says Quint Tatro. It has a nice long double term bottom.
But I am concerned with the emerging markets as a whole, Tatro adds. If you look at the chart of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx trends suggest significant downside. If you’re looking for a play the space I recommend UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares , he counsels.
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Trader disclosure: On July 25, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Najarian Owns (AAPL), (TSO), (ICO); Najarian Owns (XLF) Puts, (YHOO) Calls; Najarian Owns (CSCO) Calls; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MER), (MSFT), (TSO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (FXI), (EEM), (NIHD) ;Seygem Asset Management Owns (RSX) Calls; Terranova Owns (YHOO), (XLF), (BNI), (IYT), (SU), (RIMM), (VLO), (SA), (CME), (GOOG), (INTC),( KOL); Terranova Is Long Gold December Futures; Terranova Is Long Crude Oil September $154 Calls; Terranova Is Short Crude Oil September $130 Calls; Terranova Is Short Crude Oil September $130 Puts
Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Phoenix Investment Partners, Ltd.; Phoenix Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV), (RWX), (LNET), (EXR), (SKT), (DLR), (IGE), (ARE), (DBC), (ABD), (OFC), (CLB), (BLV), (CNTY), (FL), (HPC), (PSPT), (ESS), (OIIM), (BIG),(ENG),(PFD),(DRH)
Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Phoenix Diversifier PHOLIO; Phoenix Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)
Quint Tatro Is The Principal Of Tatro Capital; Tatro Owns (C), (GS), (JPM), (FSLR); Tatro Capital Owns (CHK), (JNJ), (QQQQ), (SPY), (DUG), (XLF), (GRMN), (ASTI), (JASO), (EEV)
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