Next Week: The Economy
With 2nd quarter GDP due out Thursday and a jobs report on Friday can you finally expect to see some light at the end of the tunnel?
For insights we turn to MKM Partners Chief Economist Mike Darda.
Thursday's GDP Data: Darda's Predictions
Mike's Estimate: 2.5%
Reaction: Stocks Rally, Treasuries Drop
Biggest Mover: Industrials Pop
Friday's Jobs Report: Darda's Predictions
Mike's Estimate: -80K
Reaction : Stocks Drop, Treasuries Rally
Biggest Mover: Consumer Shares Drop
According to Darda's analysis you might want to get long stocks ahead of GDP, especially those in the industrial sector. He think a stronger than expected number will send the sector and the overall market higher.
Then ahead of Friday's jobs report you might want to sell stocks, especially those in the consumer sector. He thinks more jobs will be lost than anticipated creating negative sentiment which in turn would drag down stocks.
Looking forward, unfortunately, Darda isn't terribly optimistic about the back half of the year. He suspects that the numbers are going to take a turn for the worse. "The credit markets are not looking good and the labor market is in reverse gear."
He expects worse than a mid-cycle slowdown but not as bad as a recession. Ultimately there are three issues he says, "credit, credit and credit."
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