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] it doesn't currently own. The $44 billion question, of course, is how much more. Shares of DNA keep hitting new highs as investors bet that Roche will revise. We've yet to hear a formal response from the three-member committee of independent directors that Genentech has formed to evaluate the bid.
In the meantime, I think we've got a new outlier on the speculated takeout price. Sanford C. Bernstein biotech analyst Geoffrey Porges is out with a research note to clients this morning titled, "Genentech: What would Genentech REALLY Be Worth? And Why $130/Share Is Not As Crazy As It Sounds."
Porges writes that his sum-of-the-parts analysis, which he details in the report, pegs DNA at $124 a share when he adds in drug development pipeline "opportunities" and drugs already on the market being approved in the future for other uses.
Porges gives an 80 percent chance of a deal getting done at $105/share or higher. And on his 20 percent odds that a deal falls through he sees a Genentech "stand-alone" valuation of $86 a share, which was his target price before Roche stepped in. Right now he has a $101 price target.
A part of Bernstein owns at least one percent of DNA shares.
This morning DNA is trading around $97.
P.S. A couple of weeks ago I reported that Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Andrew von Eschenbach had accepted a CNBC invitation to guest host "Squawk Box" this Thursday.
Well, I'm disappointed, to say the least, that this morning a spokesman--not the spokesperson who had formally confirmed his appearance via email several weeks ago--told a Squawk producer/booker that the commish has to cancel because of a "scheduling conflict."
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