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Momentum in Tech?

The market favors momentum over fundamentals right now, Cramer said during Tuesday’s edition of Mad Money at the Half.

With oil and natural gas prices down, he’d recommend investing in companies now saving money on transportation and other energy-driven costs, like a General Mills (check out Cramer’s interview with CEO Kendall Powell). But Wall Street’s more concerned with tech stocks right now.

Not that there’s nothing happening in the sector. Intel has a new chip, Microsoft’s buying back stock, Google’s taking market share, more and more applications are available for Apple’s iPhone, Research in Motion has some new phones of its own on the way. And that’s not even counting the reports from tech CEOs that big companies are spending on tech again.

Of course, Cramer hasn’t been able to find proof of this. And tech is a quintessential weak-dollar play, and the dollar is strong right now. Then there’s the historically proven seasonal tech trade that calls for tech to be sold in February and bought back in the fall. Doubtful? That strategy’s worked 16 out of the past 17 years.

CNBC’s Bob Pisani told Cramer Tuesday that this tech momentum trade was just a short-term trend as investors look to make some money. Pisani agreed with Cramer that the U.S. dollar was going to be “a serious headwind” for tech stocks in the second half of 2008. (Read more from Bob Pisani at Trader Talk.)

Even retail and agriculture, two sectors with little reason to really, have seen gains.

“Stocks have become so oversold the people trade for a few days,” he said. “But nobody thinks we’re going to suddenly see any dramatic move in the earnings estimates.”

Switching to oil, Cramer reiterated his previous price target of $110 to $120 a barrel, saying demand would return once the commodity reached those levels and gas prices drop to $3.50 a gallon.

This means he can’t be as negative on the oil and gas sector for the short term because longer-term alternatives haven’t yet been developed. Cramer’s predicting natural gas stocks bottom first, then drillers like Halliburton, then ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum and lastly Exxon Mobile, which he said could be right again.

Once oil drops another $3, Cramer said, “we’re there.”






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