- Out Of The Office For The Week
- Predictions: 9 For '09 In The Markets
- Will Santa's Rally Be Naughty Or Nice?
- Market Insider: Friday Look Ahead
- Why Credit Markets Might Get Some Healing
- Market Insider: Pre-Holiday Economic Reports on the Way
- Market Insider: Housing Data, TARP Update, and More Obamanomics
- Citi Strategist Slashes Target On Stocks
- Week Ahead: Settling Back In After the 'Geithner Rally'
- Does Geithner Appointment Stop Washington Blame Game?
- Cramer's Outrage: Paulson & Bernanke
- Lightning Round: Genzyme, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Steel and More
- Lightning Round OT: Verizon, Kroger, Novartis and More
- Executive Decision: Foster Wheeler CEO Ray Milchovich
- Cavs Owner Doesn't Mind Buzz Over James
- Trading Obama's Stimulus Plan
- What Bailouts?
- Your First Move For Tuesday December 2nd
- Web Extra: Fast & Furious Trades For Tuesday
- Toyota to Cut Bonuses Amid Reports of Output Cuts
- China Eyes Consumer Boost, May Aim 8% 2009 Growth
- Australia Retail Sales Rise No Bar to Sharp Rate Cut
- Asia Slides on Economic Woes, Nikkei Slumps 6.4%
- Beyond Rate Cuts: Other Fed Tools Against Downturn
- Paulson's Speech on the Economy and Financial System
- Paulson: US Weighs Other Uses for the Bailout Fund
- House Democrats May Seek $500 Billion Stimulus
- Bernanke's Speech to the Austin Chamber of Commerce

Birinyi Associates points out today that Wall Street's strategists are even more bullish this month than they were at the start of the year.
In fact, they are forecasting a 16 percent gain in the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year, compared to a 12 percent gain at the start of the year.
Jeff Rubin of Birinyi makes this point in a note today, and he also says that "strategists have been less than prescient these past ten years." Their August forecasts have only been rosier twice in that period, he says, and both of those times they were way wrong.
In 2001, the August forecast was for a 19 percent gain, and it was instead an 18 percent decline. The next year they were wrong again. They forecast a 17 percent gain, and the market landed a 21 percent decline.
Because of the market's decline, the average targets are now 184 points below where they started the year. Their average target has gone from 1642 at year end to a current forecast of 1458. (The S&P 500 right now is battling to hold a level of 1285.)
I called Rubin to find out more about his report. He compiled the forecasts of strategists at 11 sell side firms, including the Wall Street majors. "One other interesting thing is they always are bulilsh. I feel like in every Augsut in the last 10 years, it's always green," he said. "Their job is to sell stocks."
I looked at a chart Rubin included in his note for the years they got it right. 2003 was one. They forecast an increase of just over 5 percent and got it. But since then the forecasts and actual results have not lined up.
CNBC.com readers, in my view, are pretty prescient in their own view of the market. We would love to hear what you think.
Questions? Comments?


