With VP nominations imminent as the Presidential race heats up, how are the Intrade Political Futures markets (www.intrade.com) reacting to the candidates' short list?

Barack Obama announced that he will campaign with his newly appointed running mate on Saturday.  The Intrade markets show that Delaware Senator Joe Biden has overtaken Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as the most likely candidate to get the nod for Democratic VP nominee.  Yesterday, Biden's contract gained almost 20 points, and for the week it is up over 250%, though the contract has lost some ground today.

Intrade's Biden VP contract currently shows a 36% probability that Biden will be chosen as Obama's running mate vs. a 23.90% probability that Obama will pick Bayh.  Timothy Kaine is also reported to be on Obama's shortlist, and the Intrade markets are showing a 15% probability that he will be chosen.



McCain's short list for VP is rumored to include independent Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (Lieberman will speak at the Republican National Convention), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

Lieberman's Intrade contract on the probability of him being chosen as McCain's VP nominee was up to a 12% probability earlier today, but has now fallen back to slightly over a 6% probability.
Romney is currently showing a 26.80% probability that he will be chosen as McCain's running mate, and Pawlenty is showing a 30% probability that he will be chosen, according to the Intrade markets.

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