AP

First, let me say that I don’t believe in month-to-month data when it comes to the housing market; I think it’s far too volatile, whether it’s prices, sales or even mortgage applications (the mortgage bankers issue a three-month moving average, which is much more accurate).

That said, I want to talk about home prices today -- because we’re beginning to see a trend of a possible stabilization in certain areas.

S&P Case Shiller gives 10- and 20-city composites, both of which were down (17 percent and 15.9 percent respectively), and a national index, which was down 15.4 percent year over year.

OFHEO put out its quarterly price report, which only measures sales of homes with Fannie Mae

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[FNM  Loading...      ()   ] and Freddie Mac

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[FRE  Loading...      ()   ] loans, so that takes out subprimes and jumbos. The index was down 1.4 percent quarter to quarter and 4.8 percent year over year.

Okay, so that would seem like things are still pretty bad. But the month-to-month data shows stabilization. The reason I’m looking at month-to-month is because we’re finally seeing this trend over several months (you know, as I said, that I don’t like month-to-month). In S&P Case Shiller, the declines in all composites appear to be decelerating for a few months in a row. And OFHEO’s numbers show declines easing for the last four months. May to June was actually exactly flat at zero.

Are we at bottom? No. But we’re getting there on prices. I was heartened to see that new home inventories fell a bit in July, as builders slow production and lower prices. People are buying. We’re also seeing several months of positive prices in markets like Boston, Atlanta and Dallas (still down year over year, but it’s a definite trend).

It’s hard to believe any of the pricing data specifically, because the truth lies only locally, not just market to market, but neighborhood to neighborhood.

The key variable continues to be foreclosures: Experts say we will see another big wave of foreclosures early next year, and that could squeeze home prices yet again; but for now at least, it seems like the bleeding may be developing a scab.

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