- Next Week: Cash In Now Or Wait For A Santa Rally?
- US Markets Bracing for Selloff On Worries About Dubai's Debt
- Wednesday's Economic News Crunch Could Tilt Markets
- Tuesday's Heavy Dose of Data to Dictate 'Risk' Behavior
- Thanksgiving Week Stuffed With Economic News
- Double-Dip Jitters Cast Pall on Stocks; Techs to Weaken
- Gold Rush to Prevail on Demand, Low Rates, Weak Dollar
- Citi Strategist Bumps Target
- Rally's Low Volume Prompts Question: Whither Buyers?
- Stocks May Rise Further after Fed Waves on 'Risk Trade'
RSS FEED
MOST SHARED
- Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions
- Governments Must Take Steps To Avoid More Dubais: El-Erian
- Black Friday Sales Disappoint Investors; Amazon Up
- Tamminen: Copenhagen And Beyond
- Oil Demand Sees Year-Over-Year Rise, First Since 2007
- BofA Aims to Clearly Spell Out Credit Card Terms
- Get Paid Six Figures to Wear a T-Shirt?
- Goldman Sachs Party Ban: No Gatherings of 12 or More
- US Shoppers Spent Less Over Black Friday: NRF
- US Senator Opposes Fed Chief Bernanke Renomination
- Why Careful Shoppers Are Great for the Box Office
- Blue Nile CEO: 'We're Having the Best Cyber Monday Ever'
- Best Online Retailers to Buy Now: Internet Analyst
- ESPN The Magazine’s Body Issue: A Financial Success
- Cyber Monday: The Last Vestige of Dotcom Hype
- Dubai Fear is 'Noise'—Stay Fully Invested: Strategist
- Tech Comes to Holiday Shopping's Rescue?
- Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions
- Roginsky: The Botax Whose Time Has Come
- Oil Settles Above $77 After Iran Seizes British Yacht
- Should Homeowners Be Able to Stop Paying Mortgage?
- Buffett's Predictions For Next Year—And Every Year
- The World's Biggest Debtor Nations
- Goldman Sachs Party Ban: No Gatherings of 12 or More
- Fed Tweaking Plan to Pull Money Back out of Economy
- Scientists Gone Wild: Climate Debate Turns Nasty
- Blue Nile CEO: Having 'Best Cyber Monday Ever'
- Slideshow: The Real Cost of the 12 Days of Christmas
Market Insider
The oil market's taking notice that Hurricane Gustav could be the first major storm to wreak havoc with Gulf of Mexico oil production areas in several years, and it should be clear by the weekend just how serious that threat could be.
"This could be the most significant storm in that area since Katrina and Rita" in 2005, said John Kilduff, M.F. Global senior vice president.
Oil prices are up today on both concern about Hurricane Gustav and on increasing geopolitical tension, as Russia formally recognized the breakaway Georgian regions. Gustav is a category one hurricane and could soon reach category two level. Natural gas futures were also up sharply.
Oil [US@CL.1
Loading...
()
], though, is off its highs for the day, and GRZ Energy's Anthony Grisanti told CNBC's Rebecca Jarvis at the NYMEX that some models are showing that the hurricane could cross the Gulf south of the oil production areas, reducing the risk.
"I think the bottom's in for now. I don't see $115 (per barrel) being tested," said Kilduff, a CNBC contributor. "The storm situation may be serious enough to get us back over $120 and possibly maintaining that level."
![]() |
CNBC.com Hurricane Gustav |
Aaron Studwell, senior manager of research and analytics atWeather Insight, said there's an approximately 70 to 75 percent chance the storm will track through oil production areas. The models currently show a 70 percent chance Gustav will hit the central Gulf Coast by early next week, he said. That would be an area from the Louisiana-Texas border over to Biloxi, Miss. and Mobile, Ala. Florida, so far, is not a likely target. There is a 30 percent chance it will hit Texas.
"I see a strong category 3 by Sunday...it would just be going past the western tip of Cuba so the low lying areas of Cuba and the Caymans are now in play," he said.
But where it goes from there is still unclear. That National Hurricane Center's official forecast has Gustav entering the Gulf by Sunday morning. But the Center notes there is a "large amount of spread" in the models beyond this Friday, and some models have the storm hitting the Yucatan Peninsula instead.
Shell Oil said it is making logistical arrangements to evacuate Gulf staff who are not essential to production or drilling. It said evacuations could start Wednesday; as of now, there is no impact on production.
"Two forecast models are showing winds in excess of 150 miles per hour when it enters the Gulf," Studwell said. While there are a dozen models, Studwell said the warm Gulf waters could energize the storm and that would ramp up its wind power.
"They're kind of outliers. They are eye-catching but I'd definitely think that's possible," he said of the high wind forecasts.
__________________________________
Oil Producers & Refiners:
Royal Ductch Shell [RDS
Loading...
()
]
Exxon Mobil [XOM
Loading...
()
]
Chevron [CVX
Loading...
()
]
Valero [VLO
Loading...
()
]
Marathon [MRO
Loading...
()
]
Questions? Comments?
- Ever wished your cab driver would stop chatting and just get to where you're going? Well, that moment is closer than ever.
- UPS is giving its customers the option to offset its carbon emissions when sending a package.
- Romania's presidential campaign has been rocked by a video that may show the president striking a 10-year-old boy.
- Raising alligators is hard work, and the fickle taste of rich consumers has just made it much harder, says the NY Times.
- A recent issue of ESPN Magazine was one of its top sellers ever, and it only took scantily clad athletes to make it happen.
- The continued real estate boom in China is partially fueled by a generational flood of newlyweds.













