Cheer Or Fear Drop In Oil?
OIL KEEPS FALLING... MARKET FAILS TO RESPOND
Despite falling oil, stocks slipped in choppy trade Wednesday as signs of sluggish growth left investors worried about the outlook for consumer spending and corporate profits.
OIL DOWN 4 STRAIGHT DAYS
On Wednesday oil continued to trade lower, touching $109, its lowest level in 5 months. Technical traders say oil has broken a key support level and as a result they expect deeper declines.
Don’t expect oil to launch the market higher, exclaims a disgruntled Jeff Macke. It’s never been the catalyst we’ve made it out to be. Now, we’re beating this nag like Secretariat.
I can’t help but think there will be other funds such as Ospraie which had to close its doors because of wrong-way bets on energy, adds Karen Finerman.
Energy continues to look weak to me also, Pete Najarian injects. I, too, think the hedge fund unwind is pressuring this thing down. If you trade the space make sure you do it with a tight stop!
My sense is the next move is higher, counters Guy Adami. I wouldn’t short crude here. It could snap to $115.
CHEER OR FEAR OIL DROP?
Oil is already down nearly $40 dollars since its July 11th record, while the dollar grows stronger almost every day. As a result, investors have experienced rapid changes in the commodities market, leaving many traders badly bruised, to say the least.
Should we cheer or fear this drop in oil?
”I came into the new year cautious of oil,” says Raymond James chief investment strategist Jeff Saut on Fast Money. “But now with the declines oil has taken, as well as the world wide demand characteristic and the emerging middle classes, I think longer term there’s a tail wind."
"Production of crude has been flat at about 85 million barrels a day but consumption is coming in around 87 million barrels a day,” Saut adds. "I think if crude trades down to $100 I’d be a buyer on global growth,” he concludes.
What do you think? Tell us now!
COMMODITY STOCKS COLLAPSING…GOLD DROPS
Miners such as Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont Mining were down big on Wednesday with aluminum producer Alcoa being one of the largest drags on the Dow.
Don’t beat up Alcoa, exclaims Guy Adami. They had a great first half of the year.
Making aluminum is the most oil intensive thing on the planet, says Karen Finerman. Alcoa should be going higher on the decline in oil, unless the ultimate demand for aluminum is lower.
If you’re looking to play commodities, I’d get long Potash at $150, adds Jeff Macke, with a stop $145.
I agree, adds Guy Adami. This is the level to take a shot in Potash.
OPTIONS ACTION...FRONTIER OIL
Pete Najarian is spotting unusual options action in Frontier Oil.
The volume of options trading suggests to Pete that this stock could go higher. Specfically, he thinks margins could improve due to lower oil prices.
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THURSDAY’S STORY: RETAILERS
Investors are eager to hear from retailers on Thursday with Wal-Mart and Target among the many to post August same-store sales.
I expect the results to be grim, says Jeff Macke. The question isn’t whether they had a bad month, it’s the reaction from the stock market. I’m trading it by staying long Wal-Mart.
J. Crew has moved 20% in two weeks, adds Karen Finerman. When a stock moves this dramatically you have to take profits.
I think the same is true of Home Depot, adds Guy Adami. It’s time to get out.
NASDAQ'S WORST 3 DAYS SINCE JUNE
Shares of Corning , the world's largest maker of glass for liquid crystal display televisions and computers, slid more than 10 percent after the company slashed its third-quarter profit outlook making it one of the top drags on the Nasdaq . Intel and IBM also pulled the sector lower.
I’m concerned says Pete Najarian. Strategic investor Bill Fleckenstein has said on Fast Money that tech is next to get hit and I think he might be right.
I think Corning might be worth a look on valuations, counters Guy Adami.
GM, FORD HIGHER AFTER SALES
Automakers GM, Ford, and Toyota all closed higher on Wednesday after August sales data showed declines weren’t as steep as expected.
It’s the best month they’ve had in the last three, says Jeff Macke. But that’s like being the tallest of the 7 dwarves.
GM and Ford are okay short term trades against oil, says Pete Najarian. I like Honda , because they’re into a little bit of everything including solar.
TOPPING THE TAPE: BANKS
Bank Of America continues a strong showing, up 4% in the last 3 trading sessions. On Tuesday Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the bank with a “Buy” rating. Meanwhile, Lehman closed higher on the news that more suitors might be interested in a stake.
I’m hearing that Lehman is talking to HSBC , reveals Karen Finerman, but I would still stay away. The commercial backed mortgage market is very ugly.
If you want to play financials I’d look at USB, adds Guy Adami. Although right now valuations look a little rich, on a pullback it’s attractive.
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Trader disclosure: On Sept 3, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (MSFT), (WMT), (UUP), (DIS); Macke Is Short (TM); Adami Owns (BTU), (C), (AGU), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (JCP); Finerman's Firm Owns (AAPL) Calls, (JCG) Calls, (HUN) Calls; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (C) Leaps; Finerman's Firm Is Short (XLF), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY), (COF), (BBT), (BAC); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL) And (AAPL) Collar, Pete Najarian Owns (EP) Call Spread, Pete Najarian Owns (ETFC), Pete Najarian Owns (FTO) Call Spread, Pete Najarian Owns (LEH) Put Spread And (LEH) Call Spread, Pete Najarian Owns (NOK), Pete Najarian Owns (SCHW) Calls, Pete Najarian Owns (WFMI) Put Spread, Pete Najarian Owns (XLF) And (XLF) Collar
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