Six Reasons to Stay Positive
It’s easy to be negative – no, morbidly depressed – when the Dow drops 345 in a day.
As bad as things are – failing banks, plunging commodities, bad earnings from techs and industrials like Corning, Dell and Terex – Cramer came up with six reasons why you might not want to hide your head in the sand.
Much in the way the peak housing stocks preceded that fall of that sector, their return, Cramer said, means we should see a bottom in housing soon. His prediction: third quarter, 2009. Toll Brothers’ CEO Robert Toll, during an earnings call Thursday, talked of seeing the housing market stabilize. Order cancellations were down, and people were buying homes again. Toll also, Cramer said, mentioned the possibility of a turnaround next year at this time.
Financials seem to be getting their footing, too. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. finally followed Cramer’s advice and absorbed the bad loans at Integrity Bank and sold the deposits to Regions Financial. That’s the plan that got us out of the savings and loan debacle of 1990, and it should work again. Cramer also thinks Lehman Brothers has some potential suitors that will help that company out of its troubles. AIG and Wachovia are splitting their bad loans from the good. Investors are still making money off Merrill Lynch’s offering. All these developments help to put a floor under the decline of the financials.
No matter who’s elected to the White House in November, both John McCain and Barack Obama will most likely lower taxes for a good portion of the U.S. Cramer thinks the market is already factoring this in, and that’s why retail’s been doing well lately.
Commodities have crashed. That means the raw costs for almost every company out there have come down. This should help their earnings going forward. The commodities decline has also given us a stronger dollar and lower inflation and interest rates.
Gas prices keep coming down. “That’s practically producing a tax cut in its own right,” Cramer said.
Wal-Mart’s success – 100 million shoppers a week, and a stock that’s up 27% year to date – is a sign that the consumer isn’t done.
Cramer’s message: There’s always a bull market somewhere. Don’t give up on that.
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