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Are credit markets accurately reflecting conditions? That's the heart of an angry debate going on on the NYSE floor and on trading desks all over.
If they are, then stocks have farther to go before we bottom.
Bears say the are accurately reflecting conditions, and in fact they have been accurately reflecting conditions all year. This is the main argument for bears: the most bearish positions--as reflected in the credit markets--have been the most correct positions this year.
As a result of their record, bears have the rhetorical upper hand.
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Bulls are just as adamant, saying the credit default swaps market are thinly traded and may be subject to manipulation.
Morgan Stanley[MS
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] is the battleground here: supporters insist that the conference call went well, that Morgan has strong capital and liquidity positions, have reduced bad asset exposures, and have prefunded their issuing needs for the next 6 months. Stay tuned!
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POPULAR TRADER TALK POSTS
- Risk Trade Is Back On
- This Week's Biggest Story: The Dollar
- Corporate Issuance Continues at Torrid Pace
- The Bernanke Dollar Bounce & Gross Says Forget About Rate Hike
- Colgate Really Sparkles After Hours
- Light Volume Has Traders Complaining
- Gold Shatters Another Record
- Have Retailers Reached Their Limits?
- The Retail Mind Game
- The Gold Rush Is On
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes