Warren Buffett Watch

Warren Buffett was interviewed live by telephone on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning about his surprise investment of at least $5 billion in Goldman Sachs.

A summary is available in the post Warren Buffett to CNBC: Government Bailout Plan Made $5B Goldman Investment Possible.

This is part one of the complete transcript of that conversation.  (Click here for part two .. Click here for part three)

BECKY QUICK:  We know you get all kinds of deals, all kinds of people who come knocking asking you to jump in.  You've said no to everything to this point.  Why is this the right deal at the right time?

WARREN BUFFETT:  Well, I can't tell you it's exactly the right time.  I don't try to time things, but I do try to price things.  And I've got a formula that says bet on brains, and bet of them when it's the right type of deal.  And in this case, there's no better firm on Wall Street.  We've done business with them for years, with Goldman, and the price was right, the terms were right, the people were right.  I decided to write a check.

BECKY:  Does the backdrop of the Federal government potentially getting involved with a massive bailout plan for Wall Street, does that have anything to do with this deal?

BUFFETT:  Well, I would say this.  If I didn't think the government was going to act, I would not be doing anything this week.  I might be trying to undo things this week.  I am, to some extent, betting on the fact that the government will do the rational thing here and act promptly.  It would be a mistake to be buying anything now if the government was going to walk away from the Paulson proposal.

BECKY:  Why would that be a mistake?  Because the institutions would collapse, or because you could get a better price?

CNBC.COM POLL:  BUFFETT'S BET, A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE?

BUFFETT:  Well, there's just no telling what would happen.  Last week we were at the brink of something that would have made anything that's happened in financial history look pale.  We were very, very close to a system that was totally dysfunctional and would have not only gummed up the financial markets, but gummed up the economy in a way that would take us years and years to repair.  We've got enough problems to deal with anyway.  I'm not saying the Paulson plan eliminates those problems.  But it was absolutely, and is absolutely necessary, in my view, to really avoid going over the precipice.

CARL QUINTANILLA:  Warren, we can almost hear you measuring your words as you speak, because what we're talking about has such gravity.  There are people out there who either don't, or are unwilling, to acknowledge what exactly, how serious the situation was last week.  And I'm hearing you say is that, was it the most frightening experience you've had in your lifetime, in terms of evaluating where this economy stands?

BUFFETT: Yeah, well, both the economy and the financial markets, but there're so intertwined that what happens, they're joined at the hip.  And it doesn't pay to get into horror stories in terms of naming institutions or anything.  But I will tell you that the market could not have, in my view, could not have taken another week like what was developing last week.  And setting forth the Paulson plan, it was the last thing, I think, that Hank Paulson wanted to do.  there's no Plan B for this.

AP Goldman Sachs at 85 Broad Street in New York City. (2007 File Photo)

BECKY:  Warren, you mentioned that Wall Street could not have taken another week like that.  But what does that mean to the American taxpayer who's sitting at home saying, 'Why is this my problem?'

BUFFETT:  Yeah, well, it's everybody's problem.  Unfortunately, the economy is a little like a bathtub.  You can't have cold water in the front and hot water in the back.  And what was happening on Wall Street was going to immerse that bathtub very, very quickly in terms of business.  Look, right now business is having trouble throughout the economy.  But a collapse of the kind of institutions that were threatened last week, and their inability to fund, would have caused industry and retail and everything else to grind to something close to a halt.  It was, and still is, a very, very dangerous situation.  No plan is going to be perfect, but thanks heavens that Paulson had the imagination to step up with something that is of the scope that can really do something about it.  And what he did with the money market funds,  that was not an idea that I had, but as soon as I heard about it, that was an important stroke.  Because the money, pulling out of the money market funds and going to Treasuries, and driving Treasury yields down to zero.  That -- a few more days of that and people would have been reading about lots and lots of troubles.

JOE KERNEN:  People listen, Warren, when you speak.  And I don't know if you watched the hearings yesterday ...

BUFFETT:  I got to watch some of them.

JOE:  But when the more dire it looked, in terms of communicating, with some of these Senators,  the three-month or one-month bill, again, started acting similar to what was happening on Thursday.  Now we averted that disaster on Thursday, but it's already been three or four days.  It's almost as if these guys already forgot about the position that we were in.   Do you think that accounted --  we're still susceptible to that happening again if it looked like they're not going to go through with this?

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