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See all Tech Check PostsTech Check with Jim Goldman
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Oct.01
4:44 PM ET
Wednesday, 1 Oct 2008
Your Apple Feedback Continues

I hate to keep beating this drum, but it seems like it's striking a nerve. And while I focus so much on Apple and its treatment by Wall Street analysts, you can really substitute any well-known, highly publicized company in its place. Wall Street analysis is more an art form than a science, which means it's subject to interpretation.

Just like experts in art, nowadays if you're going to invest, you owe it to yourself to become an expert in analysis, knowing nuances as much as the financials themselves, considering the artists themselves, since an analyst might release a masterpiece on one company one day, and a complete nightmarish hodgepodge of colors on canvas the next.

That said, here are some more of your responses, since this blog seeks to create a dialogue between me, you, and you guys amongst yourselves.

Your Comments:

From Graham: "Good article. It's nice to see someone using logic in the market place today. The only thing I would add is this: What is the point of these analysts downgrading a stock AFTER the stock has fallen 50 percent from its high... It seems like they always issue a buy recommendation after something has gone on a 6-month run..."

On my point about gross margins, Jeffrey offers, "It is as if a world record pole-vaulter says I can clear 21 feet 3 inches based on my best estimate of previous jumps and my own record and training regimen, and then the promoters of the venue decide that he is sandbagging even though his previous record was 21 feet the last time in that arena. So they put the bar at 23 feet 9 inches and then call him a failure for jumping 23.6." Yes!

Seward writes, "Well stated, Jim...Apple's lowball gimmick doesn't work anymore and it would benefit all parties if Apple would be more forthcoming with mid-quarter updates and better transparency. Then again, maybe the guidance Apple gives is indeed indicative of how the company feels the coming quarter will go while the actual results demonstrate again and again the power of the brand. Not likely, but at least in the realm of possibility. I'm stumped."

Norm is angry and complains that Apple is simply held to a higher standard. It's not a question of beating numbers, but beating everyone, and every competitor. Anything less just isn't good enough. And it isn't fair. "Hey, me? I am scraping up all the spare change I can find and buying Apple. What other stock is set to double within a year?"

Ross writes, "American journalism is in a sad, sad state of affairs these days, but you my friend are a shining beacon of hope for the industry. Keep up the great work." (No, truly, he really did write that!)

Alberta says, "Mandatory reading for every Apple investor and investor looking for a solid company in which to invest."

Ed says he doesn't refer to Apple's underselling and over delivering on earnings as "sandbagging." "I refer to it as managing expectations and limiting irrational exuberance on the company its stock. It's a necessary evil on Wall Street unfortunately."

David, on analysts, writes: "Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and that's a hell of a lot better than the Street analysts."

Floyd writes, "Your Apple piece today criticizing the professionalism of others (deserved in my opinion) would have been more effective had you written "galling" rather than "gauling." Ugh. Jeffrey tells me it "galls me to note this, but I must." I corrected. Dumb mistake. Apologies.

And finally, from Julian: "Jim--Excellent article. I have been an Apple stock holder for a little over a year and have been completely frustrated by the wild swings in the stock for little apparent reason...I want to commend you for writing articles such as this which raise some very poignant questions."

Thanks all! More to come.

Questions?  Comments? 

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