With a Wall Street bailout finally in the history books it’s time to think about earnings. The season starts Tuesday.
Investors are turning a watchful eye to Alcoa , Costco, Yum Brands! and GE ; they all report next week. As you can imagine expectations are anything but high. A weak consumer combined with turmoil in the financials will probably result in a drag on numbers.
However, on a hopeful note, expectations might be so low that we could actually be in for some up-side surprises. Here's where we stand right now.
3RD QUARTER EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS
SECTOR Today July 1st
Financials -67% -4%
Consumer Discretion -9% 15%
Industrials 3% 6%
Materials 5% 11%
IT 7% 12%
Energy 53% 58%
If you add up the overall earnings expectations without the financials we’re still in double digit earnings growth, comments Zach Karabell after looking over these numbers. For a contracting US economy that’s not too shabby.
I think we’re seeing fear over fundamentals in the stock market, adds Joe Terranova. I'm waiting for capitulation.
There’s isn’t enough volume to support capitulation, counters Guy Adami. I’m going to be watching Yum! Brands for growth in China. If that's in tact their current multiple would seem far too low. (In other words, Yum! could be a buy if the company reports strong growth in China.)
I’m watching the ECB next week, adds Tim Seymour. If we get a bunch of rate cuts I think we could see a broad market rally, at least in the short-run.
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Trader disclosure: On Oct. 3, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Karabell Owns (AAPL), (AGU), (BHP), (GOOG), (JPM), (MS), (RIMM); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (INTC), (MER); Terranova Owns (AAPL), (EOG), (FCX), (FTO), (GS), (MA), (NOV), (POT), (X), (VLO)
Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (ARE), (BIG), (CNW)
, (OFC), (DLM), (DRH), (DLR), (EPR), (EXR), (FL), (SLB), (LNET), (MAC), (DBC), (DBV), (SKT), (UA), (BLV), (VV), (CLB), (GWX), (IGE), (FSMXX); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Shares Of Incitec Pivot Ltd.; Virtus Investment Partners Owns Seagate Tax Refund Rights; Virtus Investment Partners Owns Seagate Technology Tax Refund Rights; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Shares Of Essex Property Trust Inc.
Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO; Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)
Gartman Owns (CME), (KBE), (SDS)
GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC