Watch Value Of Credit Default Swaps Backed By Lehman Bonds - Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

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Oct.10

9:12 AM ET

Friday, 10 Oct 2008

Watch Value Of Credit Default Swaps Backed By Lehman Bonds

Posted By:Bob Pisani

Topics:Earnings | Investment Strategy | Stock Market

Traders are in agreement on two points:

1) We are not trading on fundamentals. Forced selling is causing many stocks to trade well below fundamental values;

2) traders do not have faith in 2009 earnings projections, which is making it difficult to value stocks.

Elsewhere:

1) The value of credit default swaps backed by Lehman bonds will be set today; this may be the most important event today.

2) Our parent company, General Electric [GE Loading... () ], reported earnings in line with the revised expectations of last week. NBC Universal had 10 percent operating profit. Affirmed the outlook given on September 25th when they revised their outlook.

More importantly, CEO Jeff Immelt said the commercial paper market was improving and they have had no problem accessing the corporate paper market recently. He said the CP issues was "off the table" for GE investors.

3) Financials: Morgan Stanley [MS Loading... () ] down 25 percent, Goldman[GS Loading... () ] down 17 percent. Gold stocks are one of the few stock groups on the upside.

4) GM [GM Loading... () ] said bankruptcy is not an option they are considering.

5) Macy's [M Loading... () ] reduces third quarter guidance to $1.30-1.50 from $1.70-1.85 (estimate of $1.75). Same-store sales in the fall season could be down by 3 to 6 percent.

6) Restaurant chain Brinker [EAT Loading... () ] (Chili's) guides below expectations for the third quarter, from $0.19-$0.20 ($0.32 consensus); guides fiscal 2009 to decline 15 percent to 25 percent.

7) Wachovia [WB Loading... () ] is trading up 15 percent pre open as Citi [C Loading... () ] is walking away from negotations with Wells Fargo[WFC Loading... () ] over how to divvy up Wachovia, they will not seek to bar Wells from proceeding but will seek damages--dramatic differences in how to divide up the company and on how much risk was involved in taking on the portfolios.

8) It appears at least a few people are trying to play a bottom. According to AMG, mutual funds are continuing to report large net outflows: $9.357 billion, two-thirds of that from domestic funds.

But look at Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): the report indicated that $6.798 b moved INTO the SPDR (S&P 500 ETF) this week.