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Fast Money DisclaimerFast Money BiosAbout Fast MoneyRapid RecapFast Money Home
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Oct.10
7:13 PM ET
Friday, 10 Oct 2008
History In The Making

They say history repeats itself and that it’s wise to learn from the mistakes of the past. In that spirit you’ll find here a brief history of the bear. (I know it sounds like a nat geo special but all joking aside you might be surprised by what follows.)

The bear market that is ravaging investor portfolios is now one of the worst in modern U.S. history and has wiped out more than $7 trillion in shareholder value, with no bottom clearly in sight.

This bear market — a term often defined as a prolonged drop in stock prices of 20 percent or more — already is harsher than most of the 10 bear markets since the 1930s. Those markets have lasted an average of about 16 months from peak to trough, with average stock losses of 31 percent, based on S&P data.

Since the record 83 percent plunge in 1929-32, the current market is exceeded only by the drops of 49 percent in 2000-02 during the tech stock implosion and 48 percent in 1973-74 during a recession and energy crisis.

It took 12 1/2 years for the S&P to recover its losses from the devastating three-year period ending in 1932, and four years for it to make up all of the decline from the 2000-02 market plunge.

Following are some numbers that we think might interest you.

Worse Than Your Average Bear…

                                  Duration                        % Change
Historic Average:           20 Months                     -34%
Where We Are Now:       12 Months                     -42%
Source: Richard Peterson, Standard & Poor’s


Top 5 Worst Bear Markets

Bear Market Start                                  % Change
1. March 1937                                       -60%
2. March 2000                                       -49%
3. January 1973                                     -48%
4. October 2007                                      -42%
5. November 1968                                  -36%
Source: Richard Peterson, Standard & Poor’s Gain 1 Year After End Of Bear Market

Gain 1 Year After Bear Market

Average:            +35.7%
Best:                 +58.3% (1980)
Worst:               +22.8% (1987)
Source: Richard Peterson, Standard & Poor’s

Read More:
> Down Market Hits 1-Year Mark with No Clear Bottom


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