Current Housing Indicators |
| CURRENT | PREVIOUS | ||
| Existing Home Sales | 4.49m | ▼ | 4.74m |
| New Home Sales | 309,000 | ▼ | 344,000 |
| Housing Starts | 583,000 | ▲ | 477,000 |
| Building Permits | 547,000 | ▲ | 531,000 |
| HMI | 9 | UNCH | 9 |
| Existing Home Prices | $170,300 | ▼ (annually) | $199,800 |
| New Home Prices | $201,100 | ▼ (annually) | $232,400 |
#DIANAOLICK ON TWITTER
- Private Homebuilders: Dead Men Walking
- Robo-Deal Is All About Lowering Mortgage Principal
- As Mortgage Refinancings Surge, Banks Struggle
- Forty States Sign On to Foreclosure ‘Robo’ Settlement
- Running Robo-Settlement Numbers
- Own vs. Rent Riles Government Housing Policy
- Obama's Mortgage Refi Plan to Go Through FHA
- Housing Demand Defies Fundamentals
- US Treasury Forcing Mortgage Principal Forgiveness
- Robo-Reality: Final Foreclosures Fall as Pipeline Swells
- In Search of America's ‘Hottest Forecasters’
- Dow vs. S&P 500: Which is a Better Investment?
- Mick Fleetwood on the MP3 ‘Dumbing Down’ of Music
- Avis on the Road to Strong Growth: Analyst
- Private Homebuilders: Dead Men Walking
- LinkedIn’s Growth Is Already Priced In: Analyst
- The Real Reason Behind Bank of America’s Rally
- 5 Hedge Funds’ Top Stocks Soar After 2011 Rout
- This Valentine’s Day Love Is Served on a Silver Platter
- Maine Caucuses a Chance to Right the Romney Ship
- Greek Debt Saga Back on Center Stage for Markets
- China President-in-Waiting to Sample Slices of America
- Greek Cabinet Approves EU, IMF Bailout Bill
- MF Global Trustee Sees Shortfall of $1.6 Billion
- Iran to Announce 'Very Important' Nuclear Progress
- We're Not Greece: Italian Prime Minister Monti
- Private Homebuilders in the US: Dead Men Walking
- Dividend Payout Could Hit Record Amount This Year
REALTY CHECK VIDEO
RSS FEED
Realty Check
Builders Bow Out Of Market Rally
![]() |
stangls Home Construction |
I know things aren’t exactly rosy in the home building sector these days, but you’d think a 500-point rally in the Dow might nudge the builders up just a little bit. Not so much.
By noon today the Dow was well about the 500 mark, and the S&P Homebuilding index was down over 3 percent.
It seems one sector at least is still trading on the fundamentals. Traffic is just plain poor in the builders’ showrooms. Wachovia analyst Carl Reichardt, who does a Neighborhood Watch” report, says traffic is at its weakest levels since January 2001. In fact, the fourth quarter “may prove (to be) the weakest climate for new home sales since the production homebuilding business effectively began in the late 1940s,” he wrote.
Meanwhile over at Credit Suisse, analyst Dan Oppenheim downgraded Toll Brothers[TOL
Loading...
()
] and Ryland [RYL
Loading...
()
]. Oppenheim sees an additional 45 percent drop in raw land values and very weak order trends. Given continued price drops, he thinks Toll brothers is risky, given its “premium valuation and high-end focus.”
On the brighter side, Oppenheim says “the stocks now reflect overly bearish assumptions for home prices and further asset write-downs,” and he believes the stocks will benefit from less supply in 2009 as well as a potential post-election stimulus.
Paul Puryear over at Raymond James concurs: “I think it’s time to start looking!” He tells me. He calls valuations “compelling” and is buoyed by the government’s intention to turn housing around. Wild card: consumers and the economy. As opposed to Oppenheim, he claims Ryland and Toll have the best balance sheets.
Questions? Comments?











