Dorn: Prepare for the Revulsion Stage
We got the shock and awe rally Monday and many were celebrating that the worst was over. Behavioral traders saw this as the needed relief from markets stretched too much to the downside and an opportunity to sell all underperforming assets. Today, we hit technical resistance on the S&P and we are now in position to retest and possibly undercut the lows from last Thursday and Friday.
Panic and sheer terror on Friday were replaced by hope and jubilation on Monday. Now, we are likely to see a washout where just about everyone who has not sold will give up and sell. They will walk away from the markets and vow never to return again. This will be the complete revulsion stage. Only when this happens will the markets be in a position to begin to rebuild the technical damage. This will take time, and it now appears that the highs in the broad indices have been seen for many years to come.
The American public trusted that their financial advisors and those managing their money would take care of them. They are now on the hook for what is likely to be in excess of $1 trillion. People will have nightmares about the Great Crash of 2008 for years to come. They will lose trust in the entire financial system and in many of their advisors who allowed their accounts to lose somewhere between 25% and 50%. The small retail trader will leave the markets in disgust and distrust. They have seen the banking system and selected public companies saved by government intervention.
Meanwhile, the retirement accounts and life savings of many have been almost completely destroyed. Americans are not stupid. They know that the banks and their predatory lending practices (coupled with the greed of many who just had to get a piece of the housing bubble) are at the root of this crisis. They also see that many of said banks have now been bailed out by a new social order and that they—the people, their children and their children’s children—will pay for this through many years to come.
Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D., is a financial psychiatrist and chief global risk strategist for Ingenieux Wealth Management in Sydney, Australia. She also offer trading consulting and coaching services via her Web site, TheTradingDoctor.com.