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Political Futures: Where are Obama and McCain trading in the Intrade Markets?

As we close in on the presidential election, most polls are showing Obama in the lead, and the Intrade markets currently show Obama with a higher probability of winning the presidency.
The debates have come and gone, Colin Powell has endorsed Obama, and Sarah Palin made her record setting debut on Saturday Night Live; where does that leave the presidential race?
Obama is trading at an almost 84% probability of becoming our next President, at near all-time highs, while McCain is trading at a 16% probability of winning the election , according to the Intrade markets.



McCain's presidential contract on Intrade has declined rapidly since hitting a contract high of a 54% probability of winning the election in late September to the current 16%.
Over 1 million shares have been traded on both the McCain and Obama presidential contracts on Intrade.

As we close in on the presidential election, most polls are showing Obama in the lead, and the Intrade markets currently show Obama with a higher probability of winning the presidency.
The debates have come and gone, Colin Powell has endorsed Obama, and Sarah Palin made her record setting debut on Saturday Night Live; where does that leave the presidential race?
Obama is trading at an almost 84% probability of becoming our next President, at near all-time highs, while McCain is trading at a 16% probability of winning the election , according to the Intrade markets.

Intrade also trades contracts on recession and the economy, something that the next president will have to contend with early in their term. The Intrade markets predict that there is a 76% probability that the US will be in recession in 2009.


As the Dow is on track to turn in one of its worst months ever, down almost 20% in October alone, the bear market is pointing towards a tough 2009 as well.

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