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As we close in on the presidential election, most polls are showing Obama in the lead, and the Intrade markets currently show Obama with a higher probability of winning the presidency.
The debates have come and gone, Colin Powell has endorsed Obama, and Sarah Palin made her record setting debut on Saturday Night Live; where does that leave the presidential race?
Obama is trading at an almost 84% [OBAMA.P
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] probability of becoming our next President, at near all-time highs, while McCain is trading at a 16% probability of winning the election [MCCAIN.P
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], according to the Intrade markets.
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McCain's presidential contract on Intrade has declined rapidly since hitting a contract high of a 54% probability of winning the election in late September to the current 16%.
Over 1 million shares have been traded on both the McCain and Obama presidential contracts on Intrade.
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Intrade also trades contracts on recession and the economy, something that the next president will have to contend with early in their term. The Intrade markets predict that there is a 76% probability that the US will be in recession in 2009 [RECESSION09
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As the Dow [.DJIA Loading... ()
] is on track to turn in one of its worst months ever, down almost 20% in October alone, the bear market is pointing towards a tough 2009 as well.
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes