Global Recession Fears Overblown
British oil company BP reported a huge 83-percent rise in third-quarter net profit Tuesday on the back of surging energy prices between July and September.
Although oil prices are much lower now, the company said it is still well positioned to generate profits.
Meanwhile, ahead of earnings Thursday, investors took a shine to shares of ExxonMobil sending the stock substantially higher.
And ag names including Potash, Agrium, and Mosaic all surged on Tuesday while Valero, the nation’s largest refiner beats estimates on Q3 earnings.
Are global recession fears overblown and is this the beginning of a commodities comeback?
I think the up-cycle is specific to the energy equity names themselves, explains the Liquidator. I would have thought oil would perform a little better. As a result the comeback will probably be in stocks but not in the underlying futures.
I also think the equities are cheap, adds the Chairwoman. But I’m short the United States Oil Fund ETF as a hedge.
I wouldn’t want to be long this sector, counters the Wolf. I don’t trust some of the markets where they must work such as Russia.
Commodities probably won’t move until next year, adds the Negotiator. You have to wait until the calendar turns because right now fund managers aren’t busy trying to minimize losses for the year.
The Bottom Line: If you want to get long energy equities such as ExxonMobil or National-Oilwell Varco it’s probably smart to also short the USO or buy puts as a hedge.
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Trader disclosure: On Oct.28 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns (WMT), (SDS), (UUP), (MCD); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (F), (MER), (TSO), (RIO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EEM); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (TSO), (VLO); Finerman's Firm Is Short (BBT), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO); GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Terranova Owns (VLO), (NOV); Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV); Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (ARE), (BIG), (CNW), (OFC), (DLM), (DRH), (DLR), (EPR), (EXR), (FL), (SLB), (LNET), (MAC), (DBC), (DBV), (SKT), (UA), (BLV), (VV), (CLB), (GWX), (IGE); Virtus Investment Partners Owns Seagate Tax Refund Rights; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (FSMXX); Virtus Investment Partners Owns Seagate Technology Tax Refund Rights; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Shares Of Incitec Pivot Ltd.; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Shares Of Essex Property Trust Inc.